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00:00:01>> SUPPORT FOR THE STATEWIDE
BROADCAST OF THE STATE OF OHIO
00:00:04COMES FROM THE LAW OFFICES OF
PORTER, WRIGHT, MORRIS AND
00:00:06ARTHUR, LLP.
HELPING BUSINESS AND INDIVIDUALS
00:00:09WITH COMPLEX LEGAL PROBLEMS IN
OHIO, ACROSS THE COUNTRY AND
00:00:11AROUND THE WORLD.
ONLINE AT PORTERWRIGHT.COM.
00:00:15AND FROM THE OHIO EDUCATION
ASSOCIATION, REPRESENTING
00:00:18120,000 MEMBERS, WHO WORK TO
INSPIRE THEIR STUDENTS TO THINK
00:00:22CREATIVELY AND EXPERIENCE THE
JOY OF LEARNING.
00:00:25ONLINE AT OHEA.COM.
KAREN: IT'S PARTY TIME IN
00:00:29CLEVELAND, AS THE REPUBLICAN
NATIONAL CONVENTION KICKS OFF.
00:00:32A CENTRAL OHIO TEACHER HAS A
LESSON FOR OHIO VOTERS -- YOU
00:00:36DON'T HAVE TO CHOOSE ONE OF THE
ESTABLISHMENT CANDIDATES FOR
00:00:38PRESIDENT.
AND WHOEVER OHIO VOTERS DO PICK
00:00:42AS PRESIDENT WILL LIKELY BE THE
ONE WHO WINS THE WHITE HOUSE, IF
00:00:44HISTORICAL STATS ARE ANY GUIDE.
TWO OF THE SHARPEST MINDS ON
00:00:48THAT SUBJECT ARE HERE TO TALK
ABOUT WHY OHIO ALMOST ALWAYS
00:00:51PICKS THE PRESIDENT.
ALL THIS WEEK IN "THE STATE OF
00:01:00OHIO."
AFTER YEARS OF PLANNING AND
00:01:06MONTHS OF ANTICIPATION,
SPECULATION AND PREPARATION, THE
00:01:08REPUBLICAN NATIONAL CONVENTION
IS UNDERWAY IN CLEVELAND THIS
00:01:11WEEK.
AND AFTER ENDLESS RUMORS OF
00:01:15ATTEMPTED COUPS AND REPORTS OF
PLANNED UPHEAVALS, THE RULES
00:01:19COMMITTEE MET TO SET THE PROCESS
BY WHICH THE NOMINEE WOULD BE
00:01:22CHOSEN.
THE 112 MEMBERS OF THE PLATFORM
00:01:24COMMITTEE ALSO CRAFTED THE
POSITIONS ON MAJOR ISSUES FOR A
00:01:27FULL VOTE AT THE CONVENTION IN
THE COMING DAYS.
00:01:30THE PLATFORM IS SOLIDLY
CONSERVATIVE ON CONTROVERSIAL
00:01:34ISSUES SUCH AS ABORTION,
SAME-SEX MARRIAGE, GUN RIGHTS
00:01:38AND IMMIGRATION.
THE PLATFORM ALSO CALLS FOR
00:01:41SUPPORT OF LAW ENFORCEMENT,
OPPOSES REQUIRING WOMEN TO
00:01:44REGISTER FOR THE DRAFT, EMBRACES
A BORDER WALL WITH MEXICO, WHICH
00:01:47PRESUMPTIVE NOMINEE DONALD TRUMP
HAS MADE A CORNERSTONE OF HIS
00:01:50CAMPAIGN.
TRUMP HAS BEEN LESS THAN
00:01:52STAUNCHLY CONSERVATIVE ABOUT
SOME SOCIAL ISSUES SUCH AS
00:01:56ABORTION AND LGBT RIGHTS, AND
THERE WERE SOME DELEGATES WHO
00:02:01SUGGESTED SOFTENING THE PARTY'S
STANCE ON SAME-SEX MARRIAGE AND
00:02:03ADOPTION.
OHIO'S TWO APPOINTEES TO THE
00:02:07PLATFORM COMMITTEE WERE
CONGRESSMAN BILL JOHNSON OF
00:02:09MARIETTA AND TRACEY WINBUSH, THE
TREASURER OF THE OHIO REPUBLICAN
00:02:13PARTY AND ONE OF THE FEW PEOPLE
OF COLOR ON THE COMMITTEE.
00:02:15VOTERS ON BOTH SIDES HAVE
EXPRESSED DISSATISFACTION,
00:02:18DISTRUST AND EVEN DISGUST WITH
BOTH OF THE PRESUMPTIVE MAJOR
00:02:21PARTY NOMINEES.
OF COURSE, THE MINOR PARTIES ARE
00:02:25ALTERNATE CHOICES -- 2012 GREEN
PARTY CANDIDATE JILL STEIN WILL
00:02:31LIKELY BE SELECTED AGAIN AT THAT
PARTY'S CONVENTION IN AUGUST,
00:02:34AND FORMER NEW MEXICO GOV. GARY
JOHNSON IS RUNNING UNDER THE
00:02:37LIBERTARIAN BANNER, BUT OHIO'S
RECENT CHANGE TO MINOR PARTY
00:02:41LAWS MEANS THE LIBERTARIANS IN
THIS STATE HAD TO REAPPLY AS A
00:02:44PARTY BY COLLECTING MORE THAN
30,000 SIGNATURES, AND THE
00:02:48LIBERTARIAN PARTY OF OHIO
DETERMINED THAT WOULD COST TOO
00:02:50MUCH MONEY, SO JOHNSON WILL
LIKELY BE LISTED AS AN
00:02:54INDEPENDENT.
BUT IN THIS UNCONVENTIONAL,
00:02:56ANTI-ESTABLISHMENT YEAR, VOTERS
MIGHT BE IN THE MOOD FOR
00:02:58SOMETHING ELSE.
AN AMERICAN HISTORY TEACHER FROM
00:03:04WESTERVILLE SAYS HE COULD BE
THAT OPTION.
00:03:07BEN HARTNELL IS RUNNING AS THE
ONLY OFFICIAL WRITE IN CANDIDATE
00:03:10ON THE OHIO BALLOT SO FAR.
HE SAYS THE CAMPAIGN STARTED OUT
00:03:12IN 2012 AS A WAY TO SELL SOME
T-SHIRTS FOR A LOCAL CHARITY,
00:03:15AND TURNED IT INTO AN EXPERIMENT
FOR 2016.
00:03:19NOW THAT HE'S MADE THE OHIO
BALLOT, HE'S LOOKING AHEAD TO
00:03:21OTHER STATES.
>> SO, IDEALLY, IF WE GET
00:03:26EVERYTHING IN
, WE ARE AROUND 12, WE HAVE
00:03:35SUBMITTED MORE PAPERWORK.
EACH DAY THAT GOES BY WE DID IT
00:03:38NOTARIZED AND GET IT SENT OUT.
AND DOCUMENT THE ENTIRE THING TO
00:03:42SHOW THE STUDENTS THE PROCESS OF
HOW DOES AN AVERAGE JOE RUN FOR
00:03:46THE MOST IMPORTANT OFFICE IN THE
WORLD.
00:03:47KAREN: THERE ARE 43 STATES THAT
ALLOW FOR RIGHT IN CANDIDATES SO
00:03:57HOW MANY ELECTORAL VOTES COULD
YOU POTENTIALLY GET?
00:03:59>> THERE COULD BE OVER 400.
KAREN: WE NEED TO 70.
00:04:05>> SINCE WE DID THE RESEARCH WE
FOUND OUT THAT NEW MEXICO WHICH
00:04:10SAID THEY ALLOWED RIGHT IN
CANDIDATES DOES NOT.
00:04:13A LOT OF THE WEBSITES WERE HARD
TO NAVIGATE AND HARD TO FIND
00:04:18THINGS ON THE WRITE-IN
CANDIDATES.
00:04:25UNFORTUNATELY WE WILL NOT BE
ABLE TO RUN IN NEW MEXICO.
00:04:29KAREN: YOU HAVE A SPACE ON YOUR
WEBSITE WHERE YOU ASK PEOPLE TO
00:04:34PUT IN THEIR IDEAS AND YOU HAVE
THE TAGLINE LOWER TAXES, MORE
00:04:38BEER.
>> THAT IS ONE OF THOSE CLEVER
00:04:46CATCH PHRASES THE STUDENT WITH.
THIS WAS FROM THE GROUND UP
00:04:48BASED ON WHAT THE STUDENTS
WANTED SO THEY CAME UP WITH A
00:04:50GREAT TAGLINE.
ANOTHER CAME UP WITH THE IDEA OF
00:04:56MAKE AMERICA BEER AGAIN.
WE HAVE BEEN HAVING FUN.
00:05:03WHAT IS EXCITING IS I HAVE
OPINIONS AND MY COUSIN DAVE
00:05:07RUNNING FOR VICE PRESIDENT HAS
HIS OPINION BUT OUR POSITION AS
00:05:10PRESIDENT AND VICE PRESIDENT
WOULD BE TO WITH BEST LET THE
00:05:15WORLD NOW HERE IS AMERICA'S
OPINION.
00:05:16THAT IS WHY WE WANTED TO OPEN UP
THE POLLS.
00:05:17IT IS A GREAT TEACHING MOMENT.
AND HAVE NICE TO MATES IN CLASS.
00:05:21KAREN: THE IDEA IS THIS MAY NOT
BE A GOOD IDEA IN TERMS OF, YOU
00:05:32WANT DEMOCRACY, YOU WANT PEOPLE
TO HAVE A VOICE AND A VOTE BUT
00:05:33PEOPLE SAY THAT I LIKELY
REPUBLICAN NOMINEE IS NOT THE
00:05:39BEST CHOICE AND MAYBE THAT
SHOULD BE CHANGED.
00:05:40IS IT A WISE IDEA TO OPEN UP
YOUR STANCE AND THE AMERICAS
00:05:47STANCE ON ISSUES TO A POPULAR
ONLINE VOTE?
00:05:49>> AND THIS WAS TARGETED FOR 14
AND 15-YEAR-OLDS.
00:05:55WE WERE LAUGHING THAT THEY TOO
GREATEST THINGS WE HAVE LARGE
00:06:00DEMOCRACY AND RYAN SEACREST.
TONGUE-IN-CHEEK WE SAID CAN YOU
00:06:03IMAGINE IF WE OPENED UP
UNLIMITED VOTING, ONE DOLLAR PER
00:06:09WROTE, THINK ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF
MONEY.
00:06:13YOU COULD NOT DO THAT BECAUSE
YOU WOULD NAIL A GROUP THAT DID
00:06:17NOT BE ABLE TO AFFORD THE ONE
DOLLAR.
00:06:23WE HAVE A FINAL LOOK AT THE
POLLS AND SEE WHAT CERTAIN
00:06:24DIRECTIONS ARE LEANING IN.
AS YOU GO UP AND GO DOWN THE
00:06:28STUDENTS HAVE BEEN FASCINATED BY
THAT AND THEN WITH THE NEW
00:06:32INCOMING CROP OF@ FRESHMAN, VERY
EXCITED TO SEE WHAT THEY THINK.
00:06:36KAREN: YOUR ADDRESS PRETTY
CONSERVATIVELY BUT THAT IS NOT
00:06:41HOW YOU APPEAR.
YOU HAVE A COSTUME YOU WEAR.
00:06:45ARE YOU A SERIOUS CANDIDATE, YOU
LOOK SERIOUS RIGHT NOW BUT YOU
00:06:48DO NOT LOOK SERIOUS ON YOUR
WEBSITE.
00:06:49>> THE TARGET WERE 14 AND
15-YEAR-OLDS BUT THIS HAS GAINED
00:06:53A GREAT DRESS ROOTS MOVEMENT.
WE ARE A SERIOUS CONTENDER.
00:07:01AND WHEN WE RATTLED THE CAGE
ENOUGH WE WILL GET CLINTON AND
00:07:04TRUMP'S ATTENTION THAT AMERICANS
ARE TIRED OF WHAT HAS BEEN GOING
00:07:07ON.
YOU HAVE A MILLIONAIRE IS A
00:07:09BILLIONAIRE AND THEN YOU HAVE
ME.
00:07:10YOU HAVE SOMEONE THAT PEOPLE CAN
ASSOCIATE WITH.
00:07:14KAREN: THE DEADLINE IS AUGUST 10
SO YOU MIGHT HAVE COMPANY IN
00:07:19TERMS OF THE WRITE-IN CANDIDATE.
HOW WILL YOU FEEL IF YOU GET
00:07:26SOME VOTES?
>> IT WOULD BE AMAZING.
00:07:31WE HAD 34 UNOFFICIAL VOTES WHICH
MEANS BASIC PEOPLE SAID WE VOTED
00:07:36FOR YOU.
IT WOULD BE TREMENDOUS TO FIND
00:07:37OUT WHEN THINGS ARE TABULATED TO
FIND OUT HOW MANY VOTES WE DID
00:07:42GET.
IT -- IF WE COULD HAVE APPEARED
00:07:44ON THE BALLOT WE MIGHT HAVE
PULLED EVEN MORE.
00:07:47AMERICA IS TWO CLICKS AWAY FROM
SHAKING THINGS UP.
00:07:51YOU CLICK THE WRITING FOR --
BUTTON FOR WRITE IN AND WRITE IN
00:08:02BEN HARTNELL.
KAREN: HARTNELL'S RUNNING MATE
00:08:06IS HIS COUSIN DAVE MARSHALL, WHO
HE SAYS HE'S TALKED THROUGH THE
00:08:08WORLD'S PROBLEMS WITH SEVERAL
TIMES.
00:08:09AND HIS SIX-YEAR-OLD SON FRASIER
SAYS HE'S EXCITED ABOUT THE
00:08:11PROSPECT OF DAD BEING ELECTED
BECAUSE HE WANTS TO REQUEST WWE
00:08:13CHAMP JOHN CENA AS HIS PERSONAL
BODYGUARD.
00:08:17THE WRITE-IN DEADLINE IS AUGUST
10.
00:08:21AS THE REPUBLICAN NATIONAL
CONVENTION GETS UNDERWAY IN
00:08:23CLEVELAND NEXT WEEK, EVERYONE'S
WATCHING OHIO -- AND LIKELY WILL
00:08:25BE THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF
NOVEMBER, BECAUSE THE STATS SHOW
00:08:28HOW OHIO GOES IS HOW THE NATION
GOES.
00:08:34THAT'S THE BASIS OF A NEW BOOK
CALLED "THE BELLWETHER: WHY OHIO
00:08:37PICKS THE PRESIDENT," AND IT'S
WRITTEN BY AN OHIOAN WHO BACKS
00:08:39UP HIS ARGUMENT WITH FACTS AND
NUMBERS EXPLAINING THE REASONS
00:08:42WHY OHIO IS THE STATE THAT HAS
VOTED FOR THE WINNER IN 28 OF
00:08:45THE LAST 30 ELECTIONS, AND WHY
IT'S SAID OVER AND OVER THAT NO
00:08:52REPUBLICAN HAS WON THE WHITE
HOUSE WITHOUT OHIO, AND NO
00:08:55DEMOCRAT HAS WON WITHOUT IT IN
MORE THAN HALF A CENTURY.
00:09:00I MODERATED A DISCUSSION ABOUT
THE BOOK BEFORE THE COLUMBUS
00:09:02METROPOLITAN CLUB WITH ITS
AUTHOR, KYLE KONDIK -- HE'S THE
00:09:04MANAGING EDITOR OF SABATO'S
CRYSTAL BALL FROM THE UNIVERSITY
00:09:07OF VIRGINIA CENTER FOR POLITICS,
WHICH IS A BEACON FOR POLITICAL
00:09:12JOURNALISTS IN ELECTION YEARS
AND BEYOND.
00:09:13AND I'M PLEASED HE WAS ABLE TO
STOP BY THE STUDIO ON HIS TOUR
00:09:16OF OHIO AFTERWARD.
SOME OF THE DATA HE USES IN THE
00:09:19BOOK COMES FROM MIKE DAWSON, WHO
WAS PRESS SECRETARY FOR AND
00:09:22COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR FOR GOV.
AND SEN. GEORGE VOINOVICH --
00:09:25HE'S NOW THE GENIUS BEHIND
OHIOELECTIONRESULTS.COM, WHICH
00:09:29FEATURES A TROVE OF
STATE-SPECIFIC ELECTION DATA
00:09:31GOING BACK MORE THAN 150 YEARS.
WELCOME TO YOU BOTH.
00:09:39LET'S START OUT WITH THIS IDEA
OF BELLWETHER AND SWING.>. STA.
00:09:41YOUR< BOOK TALKS ABOUT
BELLWETHER.
00:09:45SWING STATE IS DIFFERENT BUT THE
p<0SAME.
00:09:47CAN YOU BRIEFLY. EXPLAIN WHATE
DIFFERENCE IS AND WHY WE SHOULD
00:09:51NOT USE THESE NECESSARILY
INTERCHANGEABLY.
00:09:53GUEST: OHIO IS A BELLWETHER
STATE BECAUSE IT REFLECTS --
00:09:59THAN NATIONAL BOATING IS 41 AND
59 AND OHIO WILL BE 51, 49.
00:10:07IF THE ELECTION IS 6040 OHIO
WILL BE 6040.
00:10:12A SWING STATE IS ANOTHER TERM
THAT GETS THROWN AROUND, THAT
00:10:14MEANS A STATE THAT IS CLOSE.
IN A BLOWOUT ELECTION YOU WILL
00:10:18HAVE CLOSE STATES BUT THEY WILL
NOT BE WITH -- THEY WILL NOT BE
00:10:22L WEATHERS.
THEY WILL NOT REFLECT WHAT THE
00:10:27NATION IS DOING.
IT REFLECTS THE NATIONAL BOATING
00:10:31AND A SWING STATE.
THE STATE WAS HYPOTHETICAL --
00:10:36HYPOTHETICALLY WINNABLE BY BOTH
PARTIES.
00:10:37DEMOGRAPHICS>>. ARE CHANGING BUT
00:10:47NOT AT THE SAME RATE THE
NATIONAL DEMOGRAPHICS ARE.
00:10:48THE DATA< SAYS OHIO0, IS 83% E
BUT THE NATION IS OVER SEVEN THE
00:10:55SEVEN -- 77.
,17.6% IN THE U.S..
00:11:03I WANT TO ASKp < YOU BOTH WHATS
THAT MEAN FOR OHIO IN TERMS OF
00:11:06BEING A BELLWETHER GOING
FORWARD.
00:11:08GUEST: THE NATION HAS BEEN --
ESTATE HAS BEEN MORE REFLECTIVE.
00:11:17THERE IS NO SIGN THAT ITS
BELLWETHER STATUS WAS ERODING.
00:11:25IF IT IS BECAUSE -- IT IS
BECAUSE OF THE STATISTICS YOU
00:11:32CITE.
OHIO HAS ALWAYS HAD A DECENT
00:11:35SIZED AFRICAN-AMERICAN
POPULATION ABOUT THE SIZE OF
00:11:40WHAT IT IS NATIONALLY, 12 OR
13%.
00:11:41THE COUNTRY IS BECOMING VERY
DIVERSE AT A FAST RATE.
00:11:45OHIO IS NOT AS DIVERSE AS THE
NATION.
00:11:49>> THE DEMOGRAPHICS WOULD
SUGGEST DEMOCRATS WOULD DO
00:11:54BETTER IN NATIONAL ELECTIONS
BECAUSE OF THE HISPANIC AND
00:11:58AFRICAN-AMERICAN VOTE.
OHIO MAY STAY MORE REPUBLICAN.
00:12:04IT0p< WILL> >@,< REFLECT THE A.
KAREN: IT IS NOT A PURPLE STATE
00:12:14IN NONPRESIDENTIAL YEARS.
WHY IS THAT?
00:12:16GUEST: DEMOCRATS DO NOT COME OUT
IN THE SAME NUMBERS AS THEY DO
00:12:25IN PRESIDENTIAL YEARS.
THE BLOWOUT IN THIS LAST
00:12:26GOVERNOR'S RACE GOT 60% OF THE
VOTE, THERE WERE 2.4 MILLION
00:12:32FEWER VOTERS IN 2014 THAN THERE
WERE IN 2012.
00:12:37THE AVERAGE IS AROUND 1.5
MILLION.
00:12:40REPUBLICANS HAVE WON EVERY STATE
OFFICE IN THE PAST FIVE OR SIX
00:12:48ELECTIONS AND IN THE PAST 10,
IMMIGRANTS HAVE WON FIVE AND
00:12:54REPUBLICANS FIVE.
IT IS A DIFFERENT ELECTORATE.
00:12:55GUEST: TYPICALLY OHIO IS 60% AND
THAT IS TRUE NATIONALLY.
00:13:01IT IS 35 PERCENT OF 40%.
THE VOTERS WHO SHOW UP ARE
00:13:09GENERALLY OLDER AND WIDER --
WHITER, OLDER AND WHITER VOTERS
00:13:17ARE GENERALLY MORE
REPUBLICAN.
00:13:23KAREN:p YOU HAVE IDENTIFIED
00:13:28BELLWETHERS.
WHY ARE THESE PARTICULAR
00:13:34COUNTIES AND MAYBE YOU CAN CITE
A COUPLE OF THEM, WHY ARE THEY
00:13:37BELLWETHERS?
GUEST: THERE ARE COUNTIES THAT
00:13:43HAVE A PRETTY GOOD AVERAGE,
STARK COUNTY IS, OTTAWA COUNTY
00:13:49PART OF GREETER TOLEDO IS
ANOTHER ONE.
00:13:52SOME OF THE REASONS THEY WAY
THEY DO IS KIND OF MYSTERIOUS
00:13:59BUT STARK HAS A GOOD MIX OF
URBAN AND RURAL IN THE OUTSKIRTS
00:14:06OF THE COUNTY.
OHIO IS A GREAT MIX OF URBAN,
00:14:13SUBURBAN, AND RURAL WHICH
REFLECTS THE NATION AND A COUNTY
00:14:17LIKE STARK IS A GOOD
REPRESENTATION OF THAT.
00:14:18GUEST: I COMPLETELY AGREE.
,,KAREN:< YOU TALK ABOUT OHIO N
00:14:23YOUR BOOK HAVING ISSUES WITH
POLITICS.
00:14:27DO BALLOT ISSUES EVER MAKE A
DIFFERENCE?
00:14:29GUEST: THERE ARE SOME PEOPLE WHO
BELIEVE THAT THE 2004 SAME-SEX
00:14:35AMENDMENT THAT PASSED
OVERWHELMINGLY IN

00:14:40NARROW WINNING IN THE STATE.
SOME BELIEVE IT MIGHT HAVE
00:14:46HELPED BUSH WHEN THE STATE.
THERE IS NOT A GREAT AMOUNT OF
00:14:48.EVIDENCE THAT IS THE CASE.
PEOPLE ARE COMING OUT TO VOTE AT
00:14:55THE TOP OF THE TICKET, NOT
NECESSARILY FOR THE STATEWIDE
00:14:57BALLOT ISSUES WHICH WE TYPICALLY
HAVE A LOT OF THOSE ON THE
00:15:01BALLOT.
GUEST: I DID A LOT OF EXTENSIVE
00:15:04RESEARCH AND COMPARED NUMBERS
AND CONCLUDED THAT WAS NOT A
00:15:10DRIVING FACTOR IN THE ELECTION.
THE SAME-SEX MARRIAGE WAS
00:15:18POPULAR IN THE BLACK COMMUNITY.
PEOPLE HAD TO HAVE BEEN VOTING
00:15:20FOR THE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE FOR
PRESIDENT AND THEY WERE STILL
00:15:26VOTING FOR SAME-SEX MARRIAGE.
I DID NOT FIND ANY CORRELATION.
00:15:28GUEST: THERE WAS AN EXAMPLE
CONDUCTED AFTER THE 2004
00:15:34ELECTION SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT
TRASHED EVERY BUSH HAD OVER
00:15:37PERFORMED AMONGST
AFRICAN-AMERICANS BUT MIKE IS
00:15:42LOOKED AT THE PRECINCT LEVEL
NUMBERS AND SO HAVE I.
00:15:45JOHN KERRY DID ABOUT AS WELL AS
YOU WOULD EXPECT WITH
00:15:50AFRICAN-AMERICANS, 90% PLUS IN
MOST PLACES.
00:15:52I AGREE WITH MIKE THAT I DO NOT
THINK IF SAME-SEX MARRIAGE HAS
00:15:57NOT BEEN ON THE BALLOT BUSH
WOULD HAVE CARRIED OHIO.
00:15:59>> I SPOKE TO A SENIOR BUSH
CAMPAIGN OFFICIAL AND THEY DID
00:16:06NOT FEEL LIKE IT MAY THAT MUCH
OF A DIFFERENCE.
00:16:07KAREN: I WANT,,0 > TO ASK ABOUTS
YEARS ELECTION WHICH WE WILL BE
00:16:12LOOKING AT THIS NEXT YEAR.
THE POLL CAME< . < OUT SHOWINT
00:16:17CLINTON< AND TRUMP ARE VIRTUALLY
TIED.
00:16:20NATIONAL POLLS SHOW CLINTON
LEADING TRUMP BY ABOUT FIVE
00:16:24POINTS.
WHO IS RIGHT?
00:16:25GUEST: YOU WOULD EXPECT OHIO
WHICH VOTES WITH THE STATEWIDE
00:16:30AVERAGE BUT MAYBE A LITTLE BIT
MORE REPUBLICAN.
00:16:33CLINTON IS UP FOR FIVE POINTS
NATIONALLY.
00:16:37YOU WOULD EXPECT HER TO BE UP
TWO OR THREE OR FOUR POINTS.
00:16:40SOME SHOW THE RECENT POLL DID
NOT SHOW THAT.
00:16:44I WOULD THINK THAT CLINTON IS
LEADING IN OHIO BUT PROBABLY NOT
00:16:48BY A WHOLE LOT.
GUEST: I HAVE PROBLEMS WITH THE
00:16:51QUINNIPIAC POLL.
IN THE LAST POLL THERE ARE
00:16:55PUBLIC AND DEMOCRATIC SPLIT WAS
PLUS SEVEN DEMOCRATIC AND THEY
00:17:01WERE TIED 40-41.
THIS IS EVEN AND THEY ARE STILL
00:17:06TIED.
THAT DOESN'T MAKE SENSE TO ME.
00:17:07>.KAREN: YOU SAY THAT THE
QUINNIPIAC POLL IS
00:17:13..BUT WHAT POLLS DO YOU FOLKS
LIKE,< WHAT, POLLS DO YOU WANT O
00:17:18LOOK AT AND THERE IS NOT A WHOLE
LOT OF SPECIFICp<00,00 STATE PO,
00:17:20THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT OF
PULLING IN OHIO.
00:17:25>> I WAS WANT TO LOOK AT MY
CAMPAIGN .. POLLS THAT ARE DONY
00:17:28PROFESSIONALS THAT GET PAID TO
DO ELECTION POLLS.
00:17:30IF YOU'RE ASKING WHAT I LIKE TO
RELY ON THOSE ARE THE ONES.
00:17:34GUEST: THERE ARE TWO WHOLE
AGGREGATION WEBSITES MY
00:17:41HUFFINGTON POST AND THEY TAKE
ALL THE POLLS AND PUT THEM IN AN
00:17:45AVERAGE.
THAT TO ME IS GENERALLY BETTER
00:17:47THAN ANY SINGLE OLD -- POLL.
GUEST: WHEN YOU MIX POLLS YOU
00:18:00ARE USING DIFFERENT KINDS, SO
YOU GET A BIG MIX AND PUTTING
00:18:09THEM TOGETHER GIVES YOU SOME
STABILITY.
00:18:10THE OTHER THING TO REMEMBER IS
RIGHT NOW POLLSTERS ARE POLLING
00:18:13REGISTERED VOTERS.
IN SEPTEMBER THEY WILL MOVE TO
00:18:19LIKELY VOTERS AND YOU WILL SEE
SOME BIG SHIFTS WHEN YOU MOVE
00:18:22BETWEEN REGISTERED VOTERS AND
LIKELY VOTERS.
00:18:2300 .KAREN: ALSO YOU > HAVE INDET
VOTERS.
00:18:2634 PERCENT SAID THEY ARE
INDEPENDENTS.
00:18:32WHO ARE THESE PEOPLE?
>> A LOT OF PEOPLE WHO CALL
00:18:35THEMSELVES INDEPENDENTS ARE
LYING.
00:18:36THEY MAY SAY THEY ARE
INDEPENDENT BUT THEY MIGHT BE A
00:18:41TEA PARTY REPUBLICAN WHO VOTES
REPUBLICAN ALL THE TIME AND DOES
00:18:43NOT LIKE THE PARTY LEADERSHIP
WHICH IS COMMON AMONG
00:18:46REPUBLICANS.
THERE MAY BE BERNIE SANDERS
00:18:48VOTERS WHO DO NOT CONSIDER
THEMSELVES DEMOCRATS WHO CALL
00:18:53THEMSELVES INDEPENDENTS BUT MOST
OF THOSE ARE WHAT I WOULD CALL
00:18:57HIDDEN PARTISANS.
WHAT IS INTERESTING IS THAT TRUE
00:18:59INDEPENDENT VOTERS, 10% OF THE
ELECTORATE ROUGHLY, THOSE VOTERS
00:19:04TO SPLIT THEIR TICKETS OR VOTE
DIFFERENTLY FROM ONE ELECTION TO
00:19:09THE NEXT.
THEY ARE ABLE TO CARE THE LEAST
00:19:11ABOUT THE ELECTION OF THE
ELECTORATE.
00:19:13THEY MAY BE THE ONES WHO ARE NOT
PAYING ATTENTION.
00:19:17KAREN: SHOULD WE BE INCLUDING
THEM IN POLLS OF THIS POINT?
00:19:23>> I THINK SO.
WE HAVE TO RECOGNIZE THAT THERE
00:19:25IS NOT TRULY A THIRD OF THE
VOTERS WHO ARE UP FOR GRABS AND
00:19:30HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING UP
THEIR MINDS.
00:19:32MOST OF THOSE PEOPLE ARE NOT
TRULY PERSUADABLE BY THE
00:19:34CAMPAIGNS.
GUEST: THEY USUALLY VOTE THE
00:19:38SAME WAY BUT THERE ARE HIDDEN
PARTISANS.
00:19:42KAREN: LOOKING AHEAD TO THE<<,
AND LET'S ASSUME THAT HILLARY
00:19:47CLINTON AND DONALD TRUMP ARE THE
NOMINEES.
00:19:49WHAT WOULDpp THEY HAVE TO> DO
BUILD THE: RUSSIAN THAT WOULD
00:19:54WIN IN OHIO, THERE IS THIS
PRESUMPTION THAT HILLARY WILL
00:19:55,WIN NORTHEAST,0.. OHIO AND DOND
TRUMP WOULD WIN IN SOUTHWEST
00:20:01OHIO.
CENTRAL OHIO WILL BE A MAJOR
00:20:06FACTOR BUT THERE IS MORE TO IT
THAN THAT, RIGHT?
00:20:08>> CENTRAL OHIO WILL DECIDE THE
OUTCOME.
00:20:12A DEMOCRAT HAS NEVER ONE CENTRAL
OHIO UNTIL OBAMA DID IN 2008 IN
00:20:172012 SINCE 1964 WHICH WAS A
LANDSLIDE I LYNDON JOHNSON.
00:20:21BEFORE THAT NOT 1936.
SHIFTING IS HAVING A PROFOUND
00:20:27IMPACT.
NORTHEAST OHIO STAMPS -- A STAYS
00:20:31THE SAME.
SOUTHEAST MOVES SOMEWHAT
00:20:38BACK-AND-FORTH BUT IT IS A VERY
SMALL PART OF THE STATE.
00:20:39I THINK CENTRAL OHIO HAS PLAYED
AN OUTSIZE ROLE AND IT WILL
00:20:44AGAIN THIS YEAR.
GUEST: I AGREE WITH THAT.
00:20:49WHEN YOU LOOK AT CENTRAL OHIO IT
IS ONE DEMOCRATIC COUNTY WHICH
00:20:52IS FRANKLIN COUNTY.
KIND OF A 60-40 DEMOCRATIC
00:20:57COUNTY VERSUS THE REST OF THE
CENTRAL OHIO REGION WHICH IS
00:21:01CLOSE -- FAST-GROWING WEALTHY
SUBURBAN COUNTY SUCH AS
00:21:11DELAWARE, THERE IS SOME QUESTION
AS TO WHETHER DONALD TRUMP IS A
00:21:15GOOD CANDIDATE FOR THOSE
COUNTIES THAT ARE GROWING IN
00:21:19WEALTHY.
AND TRUMP'S MESSAGE ME NOT
00:21:23RESONATE IN THOSE PLACES.
FRANKLIN COUNTY IS IMPORTANT TO
00:21:28WATCH BUT IT'S NEIGHBORS ARE
IMPORTANT TO WATCH AS TO WHETHER
00:21:30TRUMP DOES AS WELL AS MITT
ROMNEY OR IF HE FALLS OFF.
00:21:35GUEST: FRANKLIN COUNTY HAS
BECOME MORE DEMOCRATIC.
00:21:40THE REST OF THE COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL OHIO HAVE BECOME A
00:21:44LITTLE SOFTER REPUBLICAN.
DELAWARE USED TO BE A 66%
00:21:46REPUBLICAN COUNTY AND LATELY IT
HAS BEEN 60.
00:21:51YOU SEE SOME SOFTENING IN THE
REPUBLICAN NUMBERS WHICH IS WHY
00:21:53OBAMA WITH THE STRENGTH OF
FRANKLIN COUNTY AND THE
00:21:56SOFTENING OF THE OTHER
REPUBLICAN COUNTIES HAD ONE HERE
00:22:00TWICE.
<,,0. > KAREN: HE DID WORSE IE
00:22:05COUNTY THAN ALMOST ANY OTHER
COUNTY AND THAT IS THE MUSTER
00:22:09PUBLICAN COUNTY.
GUEST: DELAWARE COUNTY HAS THE
00:22:13MOST TRACK RECORD.
IT IS THE FASTEST-GROWING COUNTY
00:22:18AND THE WEALTHIEST PER CAPITA
AND TRUMP DID WORSE THERE IN THE
00:22:23PRIMARIES THAN HE DID IN ANY
OTHER COUNTY.
00:22:24AS MIKE MENTIONED REPUBLICAN
NEEDS TO GET A LOT OF VOTES OUT
00:22:29OF A PLACE LIKE DELAWARE COUNTY.
THERE IS A QUESTION AS TO
00:22:33WHETHER TRUMP CAN DO AS WELL S
MITT ROMNEY.
00:22:36<REGION CORRESPONDS WITH A
00:22:41DIFFERENT STATE AND THAT IS HOW
EACH REGION VOTES LIKE A
00:22:49PARTICULAR STATE WOULD.
GUEST: NORTHWEST OHIO IS A SWING
00:22:52REGION.
SOUTHEAST OHIO IS A LITTLE MORE
00:22:54THEM A CREDIT IN THE DAYS OF
JIMMY CARTER AND NO CLINTON.
00:22:58NOW IT HAS BEEN TRENDING
REPUBLICAN FOR THE PAST FOUR
00:23:01ELECTIONS ROUGHLY.
AGAIN THERE ARE NOT A LOT OF
00:23:05VOTES DOWN THERE.
THIS IS LIKE ATHENS COUNTY WHERE
00:23:10OHIO UNIVERSITY IN SIMILAR
PLACES.
00:23:11DONALD TRUMP TO REALLY WELL
THERE IN THE PRIMARY AND HE DID
00:23:15WELL ACROSS THE MULTISTATE
APPALACHIAN REGION BUT AGAIN
00:23:20JUST NOT A LOT OF VOTES DOWN
THERE AND IF TRUMP IS GOING TO
00:23:22WIN HE WILL HAVE TO GO THROUGH
THE SUBURBS LIKE EVERY WINNING
00:23:26REPUBLICAN IN OHIO HAS TO DO.
JUST HOME THE MESSAGE WILL TURN
00:23:33OFF A LOT OF SUBURBANS,
PARTICULARLY SUBURBAN WOMEN.
00:23:36,,,0< IF YOU PICK UP A VOTE U
MIGHT, LOSE TO VOTES THERE.
00:23:39YOUNGER PEOPLE CAME OUT IN
00:23:45DROVES?
GUEST: THE TURNOUT FOR YOUNGER
00:23:51VOTERS IS ALWAYS WORSE ACROSS
THE COUNTRY.
00:23:52ACROSS THE NATION THE MOST
DIVERSE VOTERS ARE THE YOUNGEST
00:23:55VOTERS.
IT MAKES SENSE AS THE COUNTRY IS
00:23:58BECOMING MORE DIVERSE, THE
YOUNGEST PEOPLE WOULD BE THE
00:24:02MOST DIVERSE.
YOUTH TURNOUT IS IMPORTANT FOR
00:24:07DEMOCRATS AND THAT IS A
CHALLENGE FOR HILLARY CLINTON.
00:24:08YOUTH VOTERS WERE HEAVILY FOR
BERNIE SANDERS.
00:24:11>> THE REAL QUESTION WILL BE
WHETHER OR NOT PEOPLE JUST DO
00:24:15NOT COME OUT AND VOTE ESPECIALLY
YOUTH VOTERS BECAUSE THEY ARE
00:24:17THE LEAST LIKELY TO VOTE.
IF YOU HAVE PEOPLE WHO DO NOT
00:24:20LIKE CLINTON, DO THEY JUST NOT
VOTE AND THE OTHER THING IS WHAT
00:24:27IS THE IMPACT OF THE THIRD-PARTY
CANDIDATE GOING TO BE.
00:24:30IF PEOPLE DO NOT LIKE CLINTON
ARE TRUMP, ARE THEY GOING TO
00:24:35VOTE FOR THE THIRD-PARTY
CANDIDATE?
00:24:36USUALLY WE HAVE 4% OR 5% OF
PEOPLE VOTE FOR THE THIRD-PARTY
00:24:40CANDIDATE.
THEY GOT UP TO 22% IN 1992.
00:24:45IF HE GETS UP TO 10% IT COULD
HAVE A SERIOUS00,,> IMPACT ON E
00:24:48OUTCOME OF THE ELECTION.
KAREN: BOTH DROPPED TO,p 40% AND
00:24:55WHEN YOU ADD IN THE LIBERTARIAN
AND THE GREEN PARTY CANDIDATE.
00:24:57GUEST: THOSE THIRD-PARTY
CANDIDATES PAUL BETTER THAN THEY
00:25:02PERFORM AND THAT IS A
LONG-STANDING TREND.
00:25:06WE DID HAVE ROSS PEROT DO QUITE
WELL IN OHIO JUST LIKE HE DID
00:25:10WELL NATIONALLY IN 1992 IN 1996.
WE HAVE TWO CANDIDATES IN TRUMP
00:25:19IN CLINTON WHO HAVE PRETTY POOR
NUMBERS IN PEOPLE MAY BE LOOKING
00:25:21FOR AN ALTERNATIVE.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT GARY JOHNSON
00:25:24WOULD GET EIGHT OR 10% AND THAT
MIGHT COME FROM TRUMP AND
00:25:32CLINTON.
MAYBE IT MAKES A DIFFERENCE,
00:25:33MAYBE IT DOES NOT.
KAREN: THANK YOU FOR BEING HERE.
00:25:34AND THAT'S IT FOR THIS WEEK.
FOR MY COLLEAGUES AT OHIO PUBLIC
00:25:40RADIO AND TELEVISION, THANKS FOR
WATCHING.
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00:25:44WEEK'S SHOW OR EARLIER EPISODES,
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00:25:45STATENEWS.ORG.
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00:25:47ANDY CHOW AND ME ON TWITTER.
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00:25:50SHOW FROM THE STUDIOS OF
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00:25:53JUST A FEW BLOCKS AWAY FROM THE
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00:25:56SO PLEASE JOIN US THEN FOR "THE
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Note : Transcripts are compiled from uncorrected captions