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00:00:01>> SUPPORT FOR "THE STATE OF
OHIO" COMES FROM THE LAW OFFICES
00:00:06OF PORTER, WRIGHT, MORRIS &
ARTHUR LLP., HELPING BUSINESSES
00:00:08AND INDIVIDUALS SOLVE COMPLEX
LEGAL PROBLEMS THROUGHOUT OHIO,
00:00:12ACROSS THE COUNTRY AND AROUND
THE WORLD -- ON THE WEB AT
00:00:14PORTERWRIGHT.COM. AND FROM THE
OHIO EDUCATION ASSOCIATION,
00:00:19REPRESENTING 131,000 TEACHERS,
SUPPORT PROFESSIONALS AND HIGHER
00:00:23EDUCATION FACULTY WHO ARE
COMMITTED TO THE SUCCESS OF
00:00:30EVERY CHILD.
ONLINE AT OHEA.ORG.
00:00:33>> INCOME TAX CHANGES AND OTHER
PARTS OF THE GOVERNOR'S BUDGET
00:00:36UPDATE WORK THEIR WAY THROUGH
THE LEGISLATURE.
00:00:40A LOT OF HEAT IS BEING GENERATED
ABOUT THE ENERGY STANDARDS
00:00:41FREEZE BILL.
AND A NEW WEBSITE PROMISES HOURS
00:00:44OF FUN FOR POLITICAL JUNKIES,
HISTORY NERDS AND OTHERS
00:00:46FASCINATED BY THE NUMBERS THAT
DRIVE ELECTIONS AND CANDIDATES.
00:00:50ALL THIS WEEK IN "THE STATE OF
OHIO".
00:01:03CAPTIONED BY THE
NATIONAL CAPTIONING INSTITUTE
00:01:04--WWW.NCICAP.ORG--
THE VARIOUS BILLS THAT CONTAIN
00:01:05THE ELEMENTS OF GOVERNOR JOHN
KASICH'S BUDGET UPDATE CALLED
00:01:07THE MID-BIENNIUM REVIEW OR MBR
ARE MOVING THROUGH THE
00:01:08LEGISLATURE.
THIS WEEK, ONE MBR BILL THAT
00:01:11MAKES MORE THAN $400 MILLION
DOLLARS IN CUTS TO INCOME TAXES
00:01:16AND INCREASES IN A SMALL
BUSINESS TAX DEDUCTION PASSED
00:01:19THE SENATE ON A NEARLY
PARTY-LINE VOTE OF 24-8.
00:01:22THE BILL WOULD ACCELERATE A
PLANNED 10-PERCENT INCOME-TAX
00:01:26REDUCTION BY SIX MONTHS,
REDUCING WITHHOLDING RATES ON
00:01:32THE FINAL 1 PERCENT IN JULY
RATHER THAN DECEMBER, AND IT
00:01:34WOULD BOOST SMALL BUSINESS
INCOME-TAX REDUCTIONS THIS TAX
00:01:36YEAR TO 75 PERCENT FROM 50
PERCENT.
00:01:39ANOTHER CHANGE WOULD DOUBLE
OHIO'S EARNED INCOME TAX CREDIT
00:01:42FROM 5 PERCENT TO 10 PERCENT FOR
LOW-INCOME TAXPAYERS AND
00:01:48INCREASE PERSONAL INCOME-TAX
EXEMPTIONS FOR OHIOANS MAKING
00:01:51UNDER $80,000 A YEAR.
DEMOCRATS TRIED AND FAILED TO
00:01:54GET SUPPORT FOR AMENDMENTS THAT
WOULD HAVE DROPPED THOSE TAX
00:01:57CUTS, RESTORED THE HOMESTEAD TAX
EXEMPTION, INCREASED THE MINIMUM
00:02:02WAGE, AND ALLOWED FOR COMMITTEE
HEARINGS TO BE VIDEOTAPED.
00:02:06BUT THERE'S STILL MORE TALKING
TO BE DONE ON THE MAIN MBR, AND
00:02:09ON PROVISIONS THAT WOULD HIKE
THE CIGARETTE TAX AND THE
00:02:12COMMERCIAL ACTIVITY TAX.
GOVERNOR KASICH WANTS THOSE
00:02:15INCREASES, ALONG WITH A NEW
SEVERANCE TAX ON OIL AND NATURAL
00:02:18GAS DRILLERS, TO FUND AN INCOME
TAX CUT.
00:02:22A RARELY USED PROCEDURE COULD
BRING BACK ONE OF THE MOST
00:02:24CONTROVERSIAL BILLS IN RECENT
YEARS TO THE STATEHOUSE.
00:02:28REPUBLICAN REPRESENTATIVE RON
HOOD OF ASHVILLE WANTS THE OHIO
00:02:30HOUSE TO HOLD A VOTE ON
LEGISLATION CALLED THE HEARTBEAT
00:02:35BILL, WHICH WOULD BAN ABORTIONS
ONCE A HEARTBEAT IS DETECTED,
00:02:38WHICH COULD BE AS EARLY AS SIX
WEEKS INTO A PREGNANCY.
00:02:41THE BILL WAS RE-INTRODUCED LAST
NOVEMBER BUT IT'S NEVER HAD A
00:02:43HEARING.
HOOD HAS PULLED WHAT'S CALLED A
00:02:47DISCHARGE PETITION, AND IF HE
GETS A MAJORITY OF MEMBERS TO
00:02:50SIGN IT, THEN THE BILL IS
AUTOMATICALLY SENT TO THE HOUSE
00:02:53FLOOR, BYPASSING COMMITTEE AND
THE SPEAKER.
00:02:57THE HEARTBEAT BILL WAS FIRST
INTRODUCED IN 2011.
00:03:00IT WENT THROUGH A LONG COMMITTEE
PROCESS AND EVENTUALLY PASSED
00:03:02THE HOUSE, BUT DIED IN THE
SENATE AT THE END OF 2012.
00:03:07OHIO HAS SETTLED A DISPUTE WITH
THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OVER THE
00:03:10USE OF SOLITARY CONFINEMENT TO
DISCIPLINE SOME BOYS IN JUVENILE
00:03:14PRISONS.
THE DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE HAD
00:03:17SOUGHT A COURT ORDER TO STOP
WHAT IT CALLED THE "RAMPANT USE"
00:03:20OF SECLUSION AS A METHOD OF
DISCIPLINE FOR BOYS WITH MENTAL
00:03:23HEALTH DISORDERS WHO ARE HOUSED
IN FOUR JUVENILE LOCKUPS.
00:03:27THE STATE HAS SAID IT USES
SECLUSION AS A LAST RESORT WHEN
00:03:30SOME BOYS WERE VIOLENT, AND THAT
THE BOYS ARE STILL PROVIDED WITH
00:03:33TREATMENT AND PROGRAMMING.
BUT FEDERAL PROSECUTORS SAID
00:03:37THAT THE BOYS' DUE PROCESS
RIGHTS WERE VIOLATED WHEN THEY
00:03:40WERE PUT INTO SOLITARY
CONFINEMENT BECAUSE THEY WERE
00:03:42DEPRIVED OF MENTAL HEALTH CARE,
EXERCISE AND EDUCATION.
00:03:46THE SETTLEMENT INCLUDES A PLAN
FOR STATE OFFICIALS TO REDUCE
00:03:49THE USE OF SECLUSION WHILE
IMPROVING MENTAL HEALTH
00:03:52SERVICES.
AND ANOTHER YEAR, ANOTHER BITTER
00:03:54DEFEAT FOR LAWMAKERS PLAYING IN
THE ANNUAL VINTAGE BASEBALL GAME
00:03:58ON THE STATEHOUSE LAWN.
THE CAPITOL CANNONS, A
00:04:04BIPARTISAN TEAM OF STATE
LAWMAKERS, ONCE AGAIN TOOK ON
00:04:08THE OHIO VILLAGE MUFFINS, A TEAM
THAT PLAYS BASEBALL ACROSS THE
00:04:09STATE BY RULES FROM THE CIVIL
WAR ERA.
00:04:11THEY DON'T USE MITTS OR CLEATS,
THERE ARE NO BALLS AND NO WALKS,
00:04:15AND A STRIKE IS ONLY A SWING AND
A MISS, AND A HIT CAUGHT ON THE
00:04:18FIRST BOUNCE IS AN OUT.
BUT AS THEY HAVE IN EACH OF THE
00:04:22LAST FOUR YEARS, THE CANNONS
FELL TO THE MUFFINS 10-4.
00:04:28IT'S BEEN A BUSY WEEK FOR THE
ENERGY STANDARDS FREEZE BILL,
00:04:31EVEN THOUGH THE HOUSE COMMITTEE
HEARING THAT WAS SUPPOSED TO
00:04:34BRING IT TO A VOTE WAS
CANCELLED.
00:04:36THE BILL WOULD HALT THE
BENCHMARKS SET IN A 2008 LAW,
00:04:39WHICH REQUIRES UTILITIES GET 25%
OF THEIR ELECTRICITY FROM
00:04:43ALTERNATIVE RESOURCES BY 2025
AND HALF THAT MUST BE FROM
00:04:47RENEWABLE SOURCES.
SENATE BILL 310 WOULD PUT A
00:04:50TWO-YEAR FREEZE ON THOSE
STANDARDS SO A TASK FORCE CAN
00:04:52STUDY THE COSTS AND THE BENEFITS
OF THE STANDARDS, AND WOULD
00:04:56START THEM BACK UP AGAIN IN 2017
IF LAWMAKERS DON'T MAKE FURTHER
00:04:59CHANGES.
BACKERS OF THE FREEZE SAY THAT
00:05:04THE STANDARDS, WHICH THEY CALL
MANDATES, ARE COSTING RATEPAYERS
00:05:08TOO MUCH, AND THAT THEY NEED TO
BE MODERNIZED TO ACCOUNT FOR
00:05:10SUCH FACTORS AS AN EXPLOSION IN
U.S. SHALE-GAS EXPLORATION.
00:05:16BUT OPPONENTS OF THE FREEZE SAY
THE STANDARDS HAVE CREATED
00:05:18THOUSANDS OF JOBS AND PROVIDE
ALTERNATIVES TO COAL AND FOSSIL
00:05:20FUELS.
SB 310 PASSED THE SENATE AROUND
00:05:251AM ON MAY 7, AFTER HOURS OF
BEHIND-THE-SCENES DISCUSSION.
00:05:31SINCE THEN, THE BILL HAS BEEN
GAINING ATTENTION FROM DIFFERENT
00:05:33ADVOCACY GROUPS.
THIS WEEK, THE GREEN BUSINESS
00:05:36ADVOCACY COALITION ADVANCED
ENERGY ECONOMY OHIO RELEASED A
00:05:41TV AD IN HOPES OF TURNING UP THE
PRESSURE ON LEGISLATORS TO GET
00:05:43THEM TO HALT IT.
REPUBLICAN SENATOR TROY
00:05:48-- >> OPPOSE.
>> REPUBLICAN SENATOR TROY
00:05:55BALDERSON OF ZANESVILLE IS THE
SPONSOR OF THE BILL HE TALKED
00:05:58ABOUT IT ON THIS SHOW LAST
MONTH.
00:05:59HE SAID THIS WEEK THAT HE
RESPECTS THE GROUP'S RIGHT TO
00:06:01OPPOSE THE LEGISLATION BUT URGES
THAT IT'S JUST A TWO-YEAR FREEZE
00:06:04IN ORDER TO EVALUATE THE
STANDARDS' IMPACT ON COSTS.
00:06:09>> SO TO ME -- I'M NOT GOING TO
TURN ANYTHING INTO A RUST BELT
00:06:12IN TWO YEARS' TIME.
THE NUMBERS ARE GOING TO STAY
00:06:14THE SAME -- WE ARE CONTINUING SO
I DO DISAGREE THAT WE'RE GOING
00:06:17TO TURN IT INTO A RUST BELT -- I
THINK THIS IS SOMETHING THAT'S
00:06:19ENGAGED ENOUGH ALL OVER -- THE
PEOPLE ARE GOING TO WANT SOME
00:06:23ANSWERS.
>> BUT THE REPUBLICAN WHO PUSHED
00:06:27THE ORIGINAL BILL TO
DRAMATICALLY CHANGE THE ENERGY
00:06:29STANDARDS LAW IS MUCH MORE
FORCEFUL IN HIS CRITICISM OF
00:06:31THAT AD.
HE IS SENATOR BILL SEITZ OF
00:06:33CINCINNATI.
>> THE CAMPAIGN AGAINST THIS HAS
00:06:35BEEN THE BIGGEST CAMPAIGN OF
DECEPTION AND MISINFORMATION
00:06:39THAT I'VE EVER SEEN IN 14 YEARS
AND THE FERVENCY OF THEIR CRIES
00:06:43IS SIMPLY TESTAMENT TO THE FACT
THAT THEY KNOW THAT THIS IS
00:06:46COMING AND THEY'RE RESORTING TO
HYSTERIA IN AN EFFORT TO DERAIL
00:06:50THIS BILL.
MEANWHILE, DEMOCRATS WHO OPPOSE
00:06:53THE ENERGY STANDARDS FREEZE SAY
THIS BILL HAS VERY LITTLE TO DO
00:06:56WITH WHAT UTILITY CUSTOMERS ARE
PAYING.
00:07:01REPRESENTATIVE BOB HAGAN IS FROM
YOUNGSTOWN.
00:07:05>> JUST LOOK AT THE NUMBERS AND
LOOK AT THE LOBBYISTS THAT HAVE
00:07:09JOINED FORCES IN GIVING THOSE
CAMPAIGN CONTRIBUTIONS TO THE
00:07:10INDIVIDUALS TO STALL THE
MOVEMENT TOWARDS ALTERNATIVE
00:07:14ENERGY.
>> A LOOK AT SENATOR BALDERSON'S
00:07:20MOST RECENT CAMPAIGN FILING
REPORT SHOWS THAT HIS TOP
00:07:21CONTRIBUTORS ARE UTILITIES AND
ENERGY COMPANIES, WITH AMERICAN
00:07:26ELECTRIC POWER TOPPING THE LIST
WITH A $5,000 DONATION.
00:07:29THESE CONTRIBUTIONS WERE FOR THE
PRIMARY, AND WERE FILED NEARLY
00:07:32TWO MONTHS BEFORE BALDERSON
INTRODUCED HIS NEW ENERGY BILL.
00:07:37AND BALDERSON ADAMANTLY DENIED
ANY ASSERTION THAT HIS BILL IS A
00:07:41POLITICAL FAVOR FOR CAMPAIGN
CONTRIBUTORS, BUT MAINTAINS THE
00:07:43BILL COMES FROM WHAT CONSUMERS
ARE SAYING ABOUT THEIR ELECTRIC
00:07:48BILLS, AND THAT IT'S BEEN IN THE
WORKS FOR A LONG TIME.
00:07:51SEVERAL BIG ORGANIZATIONS
SUPPORT THE ENERGY STANDARDS
00:07:53FREEZE, INCLUDING THE OHIO
CHAMBER OF COMMERCE, THE
00:07:56NATIONAL FEDERATION OF
INDEPENDENT BUSINESS-OHIO AND
00:07:59THE INDUSTRIAL ENERGY USERS OF
OHIO.
00:08:03AMONG THOSE WHICH HAVE SPOKEN
OUT AGAINST IT ARE THE OHIO
00:08:07MANUFACTURERS' ASSOCIATION, THE
OHIO CONSUMERS' COUNSEL, THE
00:08:09OHIO FARM BUREAU AND THE OHIO
ENVIRONMENTAL COUNCIL.
00:08:12AND THIS WEEK, A COALITION OF
FAITH LEADERS JOINED THE
00:08:14OPPOSITION.
A GROUP GATHERED AT THE DOORS OF
00:08:18TRINITY EPISCOPAL CHURCH JUST
ACROSS THE STREET FROM THE
00:08:19STATEHOUSE TO SHARE THEIR
CONCERNS ABOUT THE BILL.
00:08:25AMONG THE RELIGIOUS LEADERS WHO
SPOKE WAS PASTOR TIM AHRENS OF
00:08:27THE FIRST CONGREGATIONAL CHURCH,
UNITED CHURCH OF CHRIST JUST
00:08:30DOWN THE STREET FROM THE
STATEHOUSE.
00:08:33I SPOKE WITH HIM THIS WEEK ABOUT
WHY FAITH LEADERS ARE GETTING
00:08:34INVOLVED IN THIS PARTICULAR
POLICY ISSUE.
00:08:39>> IN MY MIND, THIS IS THE ISSUE
FOR PEOPLE OF FAITH.
00:08:47BECAUSE OVER 2000 PASSAGES OF
SCRIPTURE FROM OUR 7000-YEAR-OLD
00:08:50BIBLE ARE CONSTANTLY CALLING ON
US TO CARE FOR THE EARTH.
00:08:57GOD CALLS US IN GENESIS AND SAYS
TO TAKE CARE OF WHAT I HAVE
00:09:06CREATED.
IF THERE IS ANY CALLING WE HAVE
00:09:07AS PEOPLE OF FAITH, IT IS TO
CARE FOR THE EARTH.
00:09:10I THINK PEOPLE ARE RESPONDING TO
THIS INITIATIVE IN THEIR LIVES
00:09:14OF FAITH.
IT IS A NATURAL FIT. BUT MOST
00:09:18IMPORTANTLY, I WOULD SAY AS A
PIECE OF LEGISLATION, WE HAVE
00:09:21SEEN THAT SENATE WILL PRETEND
NEEDS TO BE STOPPED.
00:09:24IT IS HURTING THE STATE.
IT IS HURTING INDIVIDUALS,
00:09:30CONGREGATIONS.
IT IS HURTING THE BUSINESSES OF
00:09:34OHIO.
AND IT WILL HURT, IN TIME, THE
00:09:36AIR AND EARTH AND SKY OF OUR
STATE AND BEYOND.
00:09:38>> WHEN YOU SAY IT IS HURTING
THE CONGREGATIONS.
00:09:44LET'S TALK ABOUT YOUR
CONGREGATION.
00:09:46WHAT IS IT DOING THAT IS HURTFUL
?
00:09:49>> THE COST OF OUR ENERGY BILLS
WILL GO UP THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS.
00:09:53IT HAS BEEN CALCULATED THAT
THOSE COSTS FOR BUSINESSES ON
00:09:56AVERAGE WILL GO BETWEEN $16,000
AND $30,000 OF ENERGY EVERY
00:10:04YEAR.
FOR OUR BUDGET IN THE CHURCH,
00:10:08THAT IS HUGE.
THOSE ARE DOLLARS THAT GO OUT TO
00:10:09SERVE THE POOR IN OUR
CONGREGATION CAP -- THE POOR IN
00:10:14OUR CONGREGATION, TO SERVE THEIR
NEEDS.
00:10:18TO CUT THAT MONEY IS LIKE GIVING
10% OFF THE TOP TO ENERGY HILLS.
00:10:23AND FRANKLY IT IS NOT HAVE --
HELPING OHIO.
00:10:34THERE ARE FIVE CEO'S WHO WILL
BENEFIT. I DO NOT KNOW IF THEY
00:10:38EVEN LIVE IN OHIO.
THE CEO OF FIRST ENERGY MADE $11
00:10:42MILLION LAST YEAR.
THE YEAR BEFORE, $22 MILLION.
00:10:44HE DOES NOT NEED THIS.
BUT THE PEOPLE ON THE STREETS OF
00:10:49COLUMBUS DO.
WE ARE SERVING THEM.
00:10:50IT IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO OUR
BUSINESS WHICH IS SERVING GOD'S
00:10:54PEOPLE.
>> THE BILL IS SCHEDULED FOR A
00:11:01COMMITTEE HEARING AND A VOTE
THIS COMING WEEK.
00:11:04REPRESENTATIVE HAGAN HAS SAID HE
THINKS THE CANCELLED VOTE IN THE
00:11:09HOUSE COMMITTEE THIS PAST WEEK
MIGHT SUGGEST THE MOMENTUM TO
00:11:19PASS THE BILL IS SLOWING.
BUT THE CHAIR OF THE COMMITTEE,
00:11:21PETER STAUTBERG OF CINCINNATI,
SAID COMMITTEE MEMBERS WANTED
00:11:22MORE TIME TO LOOK OVER THE BILL.
AND HOUSE SPEAKER BILL
00:11:23BATCHELDER HAS SAID HE PLANS TO
HOLD A VOTE ON THE BILL BEFORE
00:11:25BREAKING FOR SUMMER RECESS.
WHILE REPORTERS OFTEN JOKE THAT
00:11:26WE WENT INTO THIS PROFESSION
BECAUSE WE'RE TERRIBLE WITH
00:11:27MATH, WE NEED TO KNOW A LOT MORE
ABOUT NUMBERS, PERCENTAGES AND
00:11:30STATISTICS THAN MANY OTHER
NON-JOURNALISTS.
00:11:32ELECTION YEARS ARE AN EXCELLENT
EXAMPLE OF HOW IMPORTANT NUMBERS
00:11:34ARE TO POLITICAL REPORTING, AND
THERE'S NOW A WEBSITE THAT SHOWS
00:11:37THAT IN VERY CAREFUL DETAIL.
THE SITE OHIOELECTIONRESULTS.COM
00:11:43WAS SET UP BY LONGTIME
REPUBLICAN POLITICAL STRATEGIST
00:11:46AND CONSULTANT MIKE DAWSON,
FORMER PRESS SECRETARY TO
00:11:51GOVERNOR GEORGE VOINOVICH AND A
TOP AIDE TO FORMER US SENATOR
00:11:52MIKE DEWINE.
DAWSON IS ALSO A FORMIDABLE AND
00:11:58DEEPLY KNOWLEDGEABLE ELECTION
HISTORIAN WHO HAS MAPPED OUT THE
00:12:01RESULTS OF HUNDREDS OF OHIO
ELECTIONS OVER THE LAST 150
00:12:04YEARS AND BROKEN DOWN THE MOST
RECENT ONES BY CONTEST, BY MEDIA
00:12:07MARKET, BY REGION, BY COUNTY,
AND IN MANY OTHER WAYS.
00:12:12IT'S A TREASURE TROVE OF DATA
FOR POLITICAL JUNKIES WHO WANT
00:12:14TO UNDERSTAND WHY OHIO IS ALWAYS
CALLED A BELLWETHER STATE IN
00:12:17PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS, AND WHO
WANT TO TRY TO GUESS HOW OHIO
00:12:21VOTERS WILL GO IN THE FUTURE.
AND MIKE DAWSON IS HERE NOW TO
00:12:25TALK ABOUT HIS SITE.
SO, THE WEBSITE INCLUDES DATA
00:12:33FROM THREE DECADES OF ELECTION
RESULTS.
00:12:35GOVERNOR, U.S. SENATOR,
PRESIDENT, ALL THESE DIFFERENT
00:12:42RACES.
HOW DID YOU GET ALL OF THIS DATA
00:12:43IN ONE PLACE SO NEATLY ORGANIZED
AND WHY?
00:12:44>> ACTUALLY THE DATA GOES BACK
TO 1855 FOR GOVERNOR AND 1856
00:12:50FOR PRESIDENT.
I CHOSE THAT BECAUSE THAT WAS
00:12:53THE BEGINNING OF OUR CURRENT
TWO-PARTY SYSTEM.
00:12:57THE RACE OR THE UNITED STATES
SENATE GO BACK TO 1914 BECAUSE
00:13:00WE DID NOT DIRECTLY ELECT
SENATORS UNTIL THEN.
00:13:05MY STATISTICS GO BACK
ESSENTIALLY TO THE BEGINNING OF
00:13:06THE CURRENT TWO-PARTY SYSTEM.
>> YOUR BREAKDOWNS ARE REALLY
00:13:11FOCUSED ON THE LAST 25 OR 30
YEARS OF THE MORE CONTESTED
00:13:15RACES, A ONCE WE HAVE KNOWN IN
TERMS OF THE HIGH-PROFILE
00:13:19PRESIDENT, GOVERNOR --
>> RIGHT.
00:13:24I PUT SPECIAL EMPHASIS ON
BREAKING THEM DOWN FOR EACH OF
00:13:27THOSE DIFFERENT CATEGORIES.
THAT IS WHAT PEOPLE FOCUS ON.
00:13:31MOSTLY ACADEMICS WOULD CARE
ABOUT THINGS BEFORE THEN.
00:13:34FOR POLITICAL JUNKIES, THE LAST
10 RACES IS ESSENTIALLY WHAT
00:13:38THEY WANT TO LOOK AT.
>> WHY DID YOU DO THIS?
00:13:40WHAT BROUGHT YOU TO THE POINT
WHERE YOU WANT TO TAKE ALL OF
00:13:45THIS DATA AND BRING IT TOGETHER
AND BREAK IT DOWN IN THIS WAY?
00:13:46>> I WAS LOOKING FOR STATISTICS.
I BEGAN TO NOTICE THE SECRETARY
00:13:54OF STATE'S BOOKS, WELL THEY HAD
THEM FOR THAT ONE INDIVIDUAL
00:13:57YEAR, THERE WAS NO PLACE BUT
COMBINED THE MALL SO THAT YOU
00:14:00COULD LOOK AT RACES OVER TIME
AND SEE WHAT WAS HAPPENING IN
00:14:05THE DIFFERENT MEDIA MARKERS --
MEDIA MARKETS, THE DIFFERENT
00:14:10REGIONS, EVEN DIFFERENT
COUNTIES.
00:14:11ONE OF THE FASCINATING THINGS,
NORTHEASTERN OHIO, WHERE OVER
00:14:16ONE THIRD OF THE VOTES COME
FROM, THEY VOTED FOR REPUBLICANS
00:14:2217 OUT OF 20 TIMES.
IN THE LAST 20, THEY VOTED
00:14:33DEMOCRATS 15 OUT OF 20 TIMES.
YOU CAN SEE OVER TIME HOW
00:14:34REGIONS AND COUNTIES CHANGE.
>> TALK A LITTLE BIT ABOUT --
00:14:36LET'S START WITH THE GOVERNOR'S
RACE.
00:14:38A LOT OF PEOPLE HAVE BEEN
TALKING ABOUT THEY FEEL THIS
00:14:41WILL BE A CLOSE RACE FOR
GOVERNOR BECAUSE THERE ARE MORE
00:14:42REGISTERED DEMOCRATS THAN
REPUBLICANS, BUT REPUBLICANS
00:14:49TURN OUT MORE IN THESE
NONPRESIDENTIAL YEARS.
00:14:50THERE IS THE FIGHT FOR ABOUT 10%
OF VOTERS WHO ARE UNDECIDED.
00:14:53THE STATS SHOW I AND MANY OTHER
PEOPLE WHO ARE SAYING THIS MAY
00:14:57TURN OUT TO BE WRONG.
>> WHAT HAS REALLY HAPPENED IS,
00:15:00WE WENT FROM FOUR YEAR TERMS FOR
GOVERNOR IN 1958, SO WE HAVE HAD
00:15:0514 ELECTIONS FOR GOVERNOR.
IN 10 OF THOSE ELECTIONS, THEY
00:15:12HAVE BEEN DECIDED BY 10
PERCENTAGE POINTS OR MORE, AND
00:15:15FIVE PERCENT OF THEM WERE
DECIDED BY 20 PERCENTAGE POINTS
00:15:19OR MORE.
THAT IS INTERESTING PUTTING
00:15:23STATISTICS SIDE-BY-SIDE.
YOU SEE THINGS THAT YOU WOULD
00:15:25NOT SEE IF YOU THINK OF THEM ON
AN INDIVIDUAL BASIS.
00:15:30YOU START TO SEE TRENDS LIKE
THAT.
00:15:31>> SPEAKING OF TRENDS, YOU HAVE
A LOT OF TRENDS IN TERMS OF
00:15:33VOTER TURNOUT AND TO WISH
SHOWING UP IN HOW MANY PEOPLE
00:15:36SHOW UP.
IT IS REALLY INTERESTING TO LOOK
00:15:39AT THE BREAKDOWN OF HOW MANY
VOTERS TURNED OUT 40 YEARS AGO
00:15:42VERSUS HOW MANY VOTERS ARE
TURNING OUT NOW.
00:15:46>> I WENT BACK TO 1960 BECAUSE
SOME PEOPLE CONSIDER THAT TO BE
00:15:50MODERN-DAY AND LOOK AT THE VOTER
TURNOUT IN PRESIDENTIAL YEARS.
00:15:56FOR THE FIRST 24 YEARS, VOTER
TURNOUT WAS ABOUT 4.2 MILLION
00:16:01VOTERS, FOUR POINT 3 MILLION
VOTERS.
00:16:07THEN IT NOTCHED UP.
BUT THEN A VERY SIGNIFICANT
00:16:10INCREASE, ONE MILLION MORE
VOTERS IN 2004 THAN 2000.
00:16:14LARGELY THOSE PEOPLE HAVE STAYED
AND VOTED IN THE NEXT
00:16:18PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS.
CONVERSELY IN THE GOVERNOR'S
00:16:21RACE, YOU HAD AS MANY VOTES CAST
IN THE 1962 GOVERNOR'S RACE AS
00:16:28YOU HAD IN THE 2002 GOVERNOR'S
RACE.
00:16:32BECAUSE OF THE INCREASE IN THE
ELECTORATE, BECAUSE OF THE 2004
00:16:34PRESIDENTIAL RACE, THOSE VOTERS
INCREASED BY 800,000 VOTES,
00:16:39WHICH IS WHY TED STRICKLAND ONE
AND WHY 2010 WAS CLOSER THAN
00:16:44NORMAL.
BECAUSE MORE PEOPLE ARE IN THE
00:16:46POOL NOW.
>> WE HAVE HAD THIS FOCUS ON
00:16:52GETTING MORE PEOPLE REGISTERED
TO VOTE, AND YET PEOPLE JUST
00:16:54DON'T SEEM TO TURN OUT AS MUCH
AS MANY WHO ARE REGISTERED, THEY
00:17:01ARE NOT TURNING OUT.
>> NO, AND I DO NOT REGISTERED
00:17:04VOTERS IN MY STATISTICS BECAUSE
IT DEPENDS ON HOW A COUNTY LOOKS
00:17:11AT ITS ROLES.
I TEND TO LOOK AT ACTUAL VOTERS
00:17:15COMING OUT.
>> IT IS INTERESTING TO SEE THE
00:17:18TURNOUT BETWEEN A GOVERNOR IN A
PRESIDENTIAL YEAR AND A
00:17:21GOVERNOR'S RACE.
THERE IS A HUGE DROP-OFF IN THE
00:17:24NUMBER OF PEOPLE WHO VOTE FOR
THE PRESIDENT AND VOTE FOR THE
00:17:27GOVERNOR IN A BIG RACE YOU'RE
LIKE THIS YEAR.
00:17:30>> USUALLY A 30% DROP-OFF FROM
THE CURRENT PRESIDENTIAL RACE TO
00:17:34THE GOVERNOR'S RACE.
FROM 20 082 THE 2010 GOVERNOR'S
00:17:38RACE, WE LOST ALMOST NERDY
PERCENT.
00:17:42>> WHY IS THAT?
IS IT JUST -- ABLE ARE MORE
00:17:49MOTIVATED NONPRESIDENTIAL YEARS?
AND WE HEAR MORE BECAUSE OHIO
00:17:53WAS SUCH A BIG PRESIDENTIAL
CANDIDATE STATE?
00:17:57>> I THINK THERE ARE STATISTICS
THAT DEMONSTRATE DEMOCRATS ARE
00:18:01MORE INTERESTED IN PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTIONS.
00:18:03LET ME GIVE YOU AN EXAMPLE.
THE LAST 10 PRESIDENTIAL
00:18:08ELECTIONS, REPUBLICANS WON FIVE
TIMES AND DEMOCRATS WON FIVE
00:18:11TIMES.
IN THE LAST 10 GOVERNOR'S RACES,
00:18:14AND REPUBLICANS HAVE WON SEVEN,
DEMOCRATS HAVE WON THREE.
00:18:19>> YOU HAVE GREAT MAPS FOR THE
2010 GOVERNOR'S RACE AS WELL AS
00:18:25THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION,
AND YOU CAN REALLY SEE HOW THE
00:18:30NUMBERS BREAK DOWN AND WHO WAS
VOTING WHERE.
00:18:31THERE ARE PARTS OF OHIO THAT ARE
READ, PORTS OF OHIO THAT ARE
00:18:35BLUE.
>> YEAH, THE 2010 GOVERNOR'S
00:18:41RACE, YOU CAN SEE IF YOU LOOK AT
THE MAP ON THE WEBSITE, TED
00:18:43STRICKLAND WON MOST OF THE
COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST OHIO WHERE
00:18:46HE IS FROM.
JOHN KASICH IS LIKELY TO CAPTURE
00:18:58A NUMBER OF THOSE COUNTIES
BECAUSE THEY TEND TO VOTE A
00:19:00LITTLE BIT MORE REPUBLICAN,
ESPECIALLY RECENTLY.
00:19:01YOU'LL ALSO NOTE IF YOU LOOK AT
THE 2010 MAP THAT JOHN KASICH
00:19:02LOST FRANKLIN COUNTY.
I THINK HE WILL DO BETTER
00:19:03STATISTICALLY JUST RACED ON WHAT
IS HAPPENED IN THE PAST.
00:19:06SO, YEAH, LOOKING AT THE MAPS
ARE FASCINATING.
00:19:11I HAD A REALLY GOOD GRAPHICS
DESIGNER WHO HELPED ME WITH
00:19:13THOSE MAPS.
>> AND THERE ARE ALL SORTS OF
00:19:16LITTLE FACTS LIKE THIS.
FOR INSTANCE, NO CANDIDATE FOR
00:19:22GOVERNOR HAS EVER WON ALL 88
COUNTIES.
00:19:24IS THAT CORRECT?
>> YEAH, I WAS HANDED SURPRISED.
00:19:27GEORGE BOYD OF ITS GOT 72% OF
THE VOTE, WHICH IS -- GEORGE
00:19:33BOYD OF ITS GOT 72% OF THE VOTE,
WHICH IS THE LARGEST EVER.
00:19:37-- VOINOVICH. AND THAT'S IT FOR
--
00:19:45GEORGE VOINOVICH.
>> WHEN YOU TALK ABOUT THOSE
00:19:56RACES, IT SEEMS LIKE WE HAVE HAD
A REPUBLICAN AND DEMOCRAT, BUT
00:19:58THE DEMOCRATS REALLY DOMINATED
THE SENATE FOR A WHILE.
00:20:02WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE
PRESIDENTIAL RACES, HALF
00:20:05REPUBLICAN, HALF DEMOCRAT.
THIS REALLY IS ACE LIT STATE,
00:20:08EVEN THOUGH IT SEEMS WHEN YOU
LOOK AT 2010 OR 2012 WITH OBAMA
00:20:13AND SHERROD BROWN TAKING IT.
>> CERTAINLY IN PRESIDENTIAL
00:20:18YEARS IT IS A SWING STATE.
IT IS NOT A SWING STATE IN
00:20:21NONPRESIDENTIAL YEARS.
I WAS LOOKING -- IT IS NOT ON MY
00:20:26WEBSITE -- I WAS LOOKING AT
RACES FOR THE EXECUTIVE OFFICE
00:20:29IN THE SECRETARY OF STATE,
TREASURER, AUDITOR.
00:20:35IN THE 1970'S AND 1980'S,
DEMOCRATS WON 82% OF ALL THOSE
00:20:39RACES.
THE PUBLICANS HAVE ONE 75% -- 70
00:20:46-- WON 75%. WHICH WOULD
INDICATE THAT OHIO IS LEANING
00:20:58REPUBLICAN.
>> IS THERE ANYTHING THAT
00:21:01REDISTRICTING HAS DONE TO OHIO?
SOME WOULD SAY GERRYMANDERING.
00:21:05HAVE YOU SEEN EVIDENCE OF
REDISTRICT ING IN YOUR STUFF
00:21:08HERE?
>> REDISTRICTING, THE LINES
00:21:14CHANGE EVERY 10 YEARS.
I CHOSE NOT TO DO OHIO SENATE
00:21:16AND HOUSE RACES.
IT IS TOO DIFFICULT TO DO THE
00:21:19CROSSWALK.
ONE OF THE NICE THINGS ABOUT
00:21:20DOING STATEWIDE RACES, THERE ARE
NO GERRYMANDERED LINES.
00:21:26THEY ARE THE STATE OF OHIO
LINES.
00:21:27IT'S EASIER TO LOOK AT THAT WAY.
>> DO YOU SEE ANY OPENINGS IN
00:21:31THIS DATA FOR A THIRD-PARTY TO
COME IN AND TRY TO HAVE A MARK
00:21:35HERE AND MAKE INROADS IN ANY OF
THESE MAJOR RACES.
00:21:37>> NO, I DON'T THINK SO.
I THINK THE TWO-PARTY SYSTEM IS
00:21:42TOO STRONG.
WHEN YOU LOOK AT OTHER
00:21:46CANDIDATES, IT IS NOT REALLY A
SIGNIFICANT NUMBER WHO HAVE
00:21:51GOTTEN VOTES.
I DO NOT SEE IT IN THE NEAR
00:21:53FUTURE.
>> WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE WEBSITE
00:21:55NOW?
THERE IS ALWAYS DATA.
00:21:56WHAT MORE WOULD YOU WANT TO ADD
TO THIS WEBSITE?
00:22:02>> I HAVE ONLY A FRACTION OF THE
DATA IS SITTING ON MY COMPUTER
00:22:05IS CURRENTLY ON THE WEBSITE.
I COULD ADD HUNDREDS OF MORE
00:22:10DOCUMENTS THAN WHAT I HAVE GOT
UP, AND I AM PROBABLY GOING TO
00:22:13ADD SOME MORE.
I HAVE SOME SUPREME COURT
00:22:17STATISTICS TO PUT UP.
I HAVE NON-GUBERNATORIAL
00:22:18STATISTICS TO PUT UP.
I'M PROBABLY GOING TO DO SOME
00:22:22MORE CHARTS AND GRAPHS SO IT IS
MORE EXPLANATORY.
00:22:25YOU CAN LOOK AT A CHART AND SEE
WHAT HAPPENS OVER TIME.
00:22:27BUT I ONLY HAVE A FRACTION OF MY
STATISTICS ON THE WEBSITE
00:22:33CURRENTLY.
>> WHAT DO YOU THINK PEOPLE WILL
00:22:36DO WITH THIS DATA.
-- WITH THIS DATA?
00:22:38IS FASCINATING FOR PEOPLE LIKE
ME WHO COVER THIS AND WATCH THIS
00:22:42. ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU BREAK IT
DOWN AND NICELY COLORED GRAPHS.
00:22:44WHAT YOU THINK PEOPLE WILL DO
WITH THIS DATA AND LEARN FROM?
00:22:47>> ACTUALLY, THE REASON I KEPT
BUILDING THE DATA, ONCE PEOPLE
00:22:51FOUND OUT I DID IT, I KEPT
GETTING REPORTS FROM REPORTERS
00:22:55IN OHIO AND NATIONALLY IN
PRESIDENTIAL YEARS TANK, WHAT
00:22:58YOU HAVE ABOUT THIS?
WHAT DO YOU HAVE ABOUT THAT?
00:23:00>> SO I FINE-TUNED MY DATA TO
SAY, OK, IF YOU WANT TO KNOW
00:23:05ABOUT OHIO, HERE IS WHAT YOU
NEED TO UNDERSTAND.
00:23:10I THINK THAT WILL CONTINUE.
I THINK IT WILL BE VERY USEFUL
00:23:11FOR POLITICAL SCIENCE COURSES,
BECAUSE THERE IS NO OTHER PLACE
00:23:15THAT HAS THE DATA LAID OUT THIS
WAY.
00:23:17I THINK POLITICAL JUNKIES WILL
HAVE FUN.
00:23:19I DO NOT HAVE PLANS TO MAKE
MONEY ON IT OR ANYTHING LIKE
00:23:26THAT.
I JUST ENJOY IT AND I HAVE HEARD
00:23:27FROM OTHER PEOPLE THEY ENJOYED,
TOO.
00:23:28>> IS THERE ANYTHING THAT JUMPED
OUT AND SURPRISE YOU AND MADE
00:23:35YOU THINK, I SHOULD HAVE PAID
MORE ATTENTION TO THAT QUESTION
00:23:40MARK ANYTHING LIKE THAT?
>> I THINK THE CENTRAL OHIO
00:23:43REGION, HOW IMPORTANT THAT HAS
BECOME IN THE LAST TWO
00:23:50PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS BOTH TO
DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS.
00:23:51YOU WILL RECALL THAT OBAMA
KICKED OFF HIS NATIONAL CAMPAIGN
00:23:53IN THE CENTRAL OHIO REGION AND
ROMNEY WAS HERE VERY EARLY ON.
00:23:59BOTH OF THEM, I THINK,
UNDERSTOOD THE IMPORTANCE, BUT I
00:24:02WAS SURPRISED WHEN I LOOKED BACK
OVER HISTORY AT HOW CHANGING
00:24:05THAT REGION HAS BECOME.
IT HAS CHANGED MORE THAN ANY
00:24:07OTHER REGION IN MODERN-DAY
HISTORY.
00:24:12>> MY GUESS, THANK YOU FOR
TALKING ABOUT THIS.
00:24:15>> THANK YOU.
>> AND THAT'S IT FOR THIS WEEK.
00:24:18FOR MY COLLEAGUES AT OHIO PUBLIC
RADIO AND TELEVISION, THANKS FOR
00:24:21WATCHING.
IF YOU'D LIKE TO ASK QUESTIONS,
00:24:23MAKE COMMENTS, OR WATCH THIS
WEEK'S SHOW OR EARLIER EPISODES,
00:24:25PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
STATENEWS.ORG, OR WATCH ON THE
00:24:27OHIO CHANNEL'S WEBSITE OR AT
IDEASTREAM.ORG/OHIO.
00:24:29AND YOU CAN FOLLOW JO INGLES,
ANDY CHOW AND ME ON TWITTER.
00:24:32AND PLEASE JOIN US AGAIN NEXT
TIME FOR "THE STATE OF OHIO".
00:24:39WE CLOSE ON THIS MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND WITH IMAGES FROM
00:24:40PRESENTATION OF THE OHIO
MILITARY MEDAL OF DISTINCTION
00:24:42DURING A JOINT SESSION OF THE
HOUSE AND SENATE, JUST BEFORE
00:24:43THE ANNUAL WREATH-LAYING
CEREMONY AT THE OHIO STATEHOUSE,
00:24:47TO HONOR ALL THOSE WHO SERVED
AND SACRIFICED.
00:24:55>> ? AT THE TWILIGHT'S LAST
GLEAMING ?
00:25:01>> SPECIALIST ANGEL L. LOPEZ.
UNITED STATES ARMY.
00:25:12[BELL RINGS]
STAFF SERGEANT SONNY C.
00:25:23ZIMMERMAN.
UNITED STATES ARMY.
00:25:26[BELL RINGS]
>> THE OFFICIAL PARTY WILL NOW
00:25:32ADVANCE THE WREATH IN HONOR OF
OUR FALLEN OHIOANS, THOSE WHO
00:25:40HAVE GIVEN THEIR ALL FOR ALL OF
US.
00:25:41>> ? AMERICA,
AMERICA
00:25:53GOD SHED HIS GRACE ON THEE ?
>> SUPPORT FOR "THE STATE OF
00:26:23OHIO" COMES FROM THE LAW OFFICES
OF PORTER, WRIGHT, MORRIS &
00:26:25ARTHUR LLP., HELPING BUSINESSES
AND INDIVIDUALS SOLVE COMPLEX
00:26:27LEGAL PROBLEMS THROUGHOUT OHIO,
ACROSS THE COUNTRY AND AROUND
00:26:30THE WORLD -- ON THE WEB AT
PORTERWRIGHT.COM. AND FROM THE
00:26:34OHIO EDUCATION ASSOCIATION,
REPRESENTING 121,000 TEACHERS,
00:26:42SUPPORT PROFESSIONALS AND HIGHER
EDUCATION FACULTY WHO ARE
00:26:47COMMITTED TO THE SUCCESS OF
EVERY CHILD.
00:26:48ONLINE AT OHEA.ORG.
Note : Transcripts are compiled from uncorrected captions