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00:00:01CLICK SUPPORT FOR THE STATEWIDE
BROADCASTING OF THE STATE OF
00:00:04OHIO COMES FROM THE LAW OFFICES
OF ORDER, -- PORTER, WRIGHT,
00:00:08MORRIS, LLP.
ON THE WEB AT PORTERWRIGHT.COM.
00:00:18>> SOMEWHERE, THERE IS A NEW
POLL OUT THIS WEEK AS THERE ARE
00:00:31EVERY WEEK.
BUT WHY SO MANY POLLS SO EARLY,
00:00:33AND HOW CAN THEY BE SO RIGHT SO
OFTEN?
00:00:35ALL THIS WEEK IN "THE STATE OF
OHIO."
00:00:45>> WITH LAWMAKERS BACK FROM
THEIR SUMMER RECESS, THE
00:00:48QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE WHEN OR
IF THEY WILL TAKE UP MEDICAID
00:00:50EXPANSION, WHICH REPUBLICAN GOV.
JOHN KASICH AND DEMOCRATS HAVE
00:00:55PUSHED FOR.
THIS WEEK, THE REPUBLICAN
00:01:01SENATOR WHO SPONSORED THE
BIPARTISAN MEDICAID REFORM BILL
00:01:04THAT GOT HEARINGS THROUGHOUT THE
RECESS IS INTRODUCING A NEW
00:01:07MEASURE THAT HE SAYS WILL KEEP
THE PROGRAM'S GROWTH IN CHECK.
00:01:12BUT MEDICAID EXPANSION IS NOT IN
HIS NEW BILL.
00:01:16HOWEVER, LATE ON FRIDAY, THE
GOVERNOR DID AS MANY EXPECTED HE
00:01:19WOULD AND ANNOUNCED HE WOULD
TAKE MEDICAID EXPANSION TO THE
00:01:22CONTROLLING BOARD ON OCTOBER 21
AFTER GETTING APPROVAL FROM THE
00:01:29FEDS.
BUT THE GOVERNOR'S OFFICE IS
00:01:36LEAVING THE DOOR OPEN FOR
LAWMAKERS TO PASS THEIR OWN
00:01:39MEASURE ON MEDICAID EXPANSION.
SPOKESMAN ROB NICHOLS SAID IN A
00:01:41STATEMENT, "ONLY THE GENERAL
ASSEMBLY CAN AUTHORIZE MEDICAID
00:01:43TO SPEND FUNDS IN THIS WAY,
EITHER THROUGH A BILL OR THE
00:01:45CONTROLLING BOARD.
THE ADMINISTRATION HAS BEEN
00:01:48PREPARING TO IMPLEMENT THIS
CHANGE WHEN THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY
00:01:50GIVES ITS OK AND WE WILL BE
READY."
00:01:52AND WHAT MAY BE THE FINAL REPORT
ON CLEVELAND KIDNAPPER AND
00:01:54RAPIST ARIEL CASTRO IS OUT.
THE PRISONS DEPARTMENT HAS
00:01:57SUSPENDED TWO GUARDS AFTER THE
RELEASE OF THE REPORT, WHICH
00:01:59SAYS THEY DID NOT DO REQUIRED
CHECKS ON HIM AND FALSIFIED LOGS
00:02:03TO SHOW THEY HAD.
A SPOKESPERSON SAYS THE
00:02:06DEPARTMENT OF REHABILITATION AND
CORRECTION HAS HIRED TWO
00:02:09INDEPENDENT NATIONAL CORRECTIONS
EXPERTS TO REVIEW THE POLICY
00:02:13AFTER CASTRO'S DEATH AS WELL AS
THE APPARENT SUICIDE OF BILLY
00:02:16SLAGLE, JUST THREE DAYS BEFORE
HIS SCHEDULED EXECUTION.
00:02:21BUT ONE OF THE MOST SURPRISING
PARTS OF THE CASTRO REPORT IS
00:02:24THE SUGGESTION THAT HE MAY NOT
HAVE INTENDED TO COMMIT SUICIDE,
00:02:27BUT THAT HE MAY HAVE DIED WHILE
ATTEMPTING TO CHOKE HIMSELF
00:02:30DURING A SEX ACT.
THE PRISONS DEPARTMENT SAYS THAT
00:02:34IS A POSSIBILITY GIVEN HE WAS
FOUND WITH A SHEET AROUND HIS
00:02:37NECK AND HIS PANTS AND UNDERWEAR
DOWN, AND BECAUSE THERE WAS NO
00:02:39SUICIDE NOTE FOUND AND REPEATED
ASSESSMENTS DID NOT SUGGEST HE
00:02:42WAS CONSIDERING SUICIDE.
WE ARE 13 MONTHS OUT FROM NEXT
00:02:47YEAR'S HUGE ELECTION, IN WHICH
VOTERS WILL DECIDE ON THE TOP
00:02:50STATEWIDE OFFICES, THE ENTIRE
OHIO HOUSE, HALF OF THE OHIO
00:02:53SENATE AND ALL OF THE OHIO
CONGRESSIONAL DELEGATION.
00:02:57AND AS ALWAYS, POLLING WILL PLAY
A CRITICAL ROLE IN THOSE
00:03:00CAMPAIGNS -- AND IN FACT ALREADY
HAS.
00:03:03QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY HAS
ALREADY DONE SEVERAL POLLS ON
00:03:08THE 2014 ELECTION, AND IN JUNE
EVEN DID AN OHIO POLL ON A
00:03:10POSSIBLE SCENARIO FOR THE 2016
PRESIDENTIAL RACE FEATURING
00:03:14HILLARY CLINTON AGAINST CHRIS
CHRISTIE.
00:03:17OTHER POLLS THAT ARE CONSIDERED
SLIGHTLY MORE BIASED BOTH LEFT
00:03:20AND RIGHT HAVE ALSO DONE SOME
POLLING IN OHIO, AND THE
00:03:24POLITICAL PARTIES HAVE DONE
INTERNAL POLLING AS WELL.
00:03:27BUT WHY POLLING SO EARLY AND SO
OFTEN -- AND HOW DO POLLS
00:03:31DETERMINE THE DIRECTIONS OF
CAMPAIGNS AND CANDIDATES?
00:03:33TO TALK ABOUT THOSE ISSUES AND
MORE ARE TWO EXPERTS IN THE
00:03:36SCIENCE OF POLLING.
PAUL BECK IS A DISTINGUISHED
00:03:38PROFESSOR OF SOCIAL AND
BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES AND A
00:03:41PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE
AT OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY, AND IS
00:03:44AN EXPERT IN POLLING AND POLLING
DATA.
00:03:47MARK WEAVER IS A NATIONAL
POLITICAL CONSULTANT WHO HAS
00:03:49WRITTEN, DIRECTED, OR
INTERPRETED THOUSANDS OF POLLS
00:03:52OVER THE LAST THREE DECADES.
FOR THE LAST 16 YEARS, HE HAS
00:03:55TAUGHT GRADUATE STUDENTS ABOUT
POLLING AT THE UNIVERSITY OF
00:03:57AKRON'S BLISS INSTITUTE OF
APPLIED POLITICS.
00:04:02LET'S TALK ABOUT HOW POLLING
SOMETIMES GETS A BAD RAP.
00:04:06A LOT OF FOLKS SOMEHOW THINK
THAT THEY ARE BIASED OR WRONG.
00:04:10ASKED AND HOW -- EXPLAIN BRIEFLY
HOW POLLING CAN PREDICT HOW
00:04:20MILLIONS OF PEOPLE STATEWIDE OR
ACROSS THE COUNTRY ARE GOING TO
00:04:23VOTE. >> IT IS BASED ON
SAMPLING.
00:04:28OF PEOPLE AT THE GRASSROOTS AND
A FEW SAMPLE WILL YOU WILL GET A
00:04:31PRETTY ACCURATE PICTURE OF WHAT
PEOPLE AT THE GRASSROOTS ARE
00:04:33THINKING.
>> THE SAMPLE IS SMALL.
00:04:36>> IT CAN BE VERY SMALL.
THE KEY IS HOW YOU DO IT.
00:04:39AND HOW ALERT YOU ARE TO
PROBLEM'S WITH THE PARTICULAR
00:04:42SAMPLE THAT YOU HAVE DRUM --
THAT YOU HAVE DRAWN.
00:04:49YOU CAN FIND OUT YOU HAVE TOO
MANY WOMEN OR TOO MANY PEOPLE
00:04:56WITH HIGHER EDUCATION AND YOU
CAN BASICALLY ADJUST THE POLL,
00:05:03PUREST DO NOT LIKE TO DO THAT
BECAUSE YOU DO NOT TYPICALLY
00:05:05HAVE THE KINDS OF FACTORS YOU
NEED TO MAKE THE RIGHT
00:05:09ADJUSTMENT BUT NONETHELESS, WE
DO IT.
00:05:13SO THERE IS ALWAYS A CHANCE THAT
A SINGLE POLE DONE PARTICULARLY
00:05:18-- A SINGLE POL DONE WELL COULD
BE OFF.
00:05:29IS THIS PARTICULAR POLL AN
OUTLIER.
00:05:37FIVE OUT OF 100 COULD BE
OUTLIERS.
00:05:42AND ONCE IN A WHILE YOU WILL SEE
WHEN THAT IS OUT OF KILTER.
00:05:47VETERANS IN THE INDUSTRY KNOW TO
TAKE THAT IN -- WELL, WITH A
00:05:56GRAIN OF SALT MAY BE IS THE WAY
TWO-PUTTED AND TO MAKE SURE THEY
00:06:01ARE DOING OTHER POLLS AND SEE
IF THEY BALANCE OUT.
00:06:05>> YOU TALK TO GRADUATE STUDENTS
ABOUT POLLING.
00:06:08DO THEY EVER EXPRESSED SURPRISE
THAT A SMALL SAMPLE CAN BRING IN
00:06:13REALLY ACCURATE RESULTS NOT ONLY
ACROSS OHIO BUT ACROSS THE
00:06:18COUNTRY?
>> THEY DO.
00:06:19I HAVE BEEN TEACHING FOR 16
YEARS AND THIS IS HOW I START
00:06:22THE CLASS GRADE I HAVE THEM
SPEND 10 MINUTES FLIPPING COINS
00:06:25AND RUNNING DOWN THE RESULTS
UNTIL WE GET TO ABOUT 1000 AMONG
00:06:30EVERYBODY AND WE WRITE THE
RESULTS ON THE BOARD AND IT SAYS
00:06:3349% HEADS AND 50% TAILS AND I
WILL ASK ON THIS QUESTION.
00:06:39DO WE NEED TO KEEP FLIPPING TO
11 MILLION TO SEE WHAT THE TREND
00:06:41IS?
THEY ALWAYS SAY NO, WE DO NOT
00:06:47AND THAT IS THE SECRET OF
POLLING.
00:06:48IF YOU RANDOMLY SELECT 1000
OHIOANS AND ASK THEM WHAT THEIR
00:06:57FAVORITE ICE CREAM IS, CHOCOLATE
OR BEEN A LOOK, YOU'LL GET AN
00:06:59ANSWER THAT WILL NOT CHANGE BY
MUCH IF YOU CALL A MILLION
00:07:02OHIOANS SO ONCE THAT TREND HOLDS
UP, WHY WOULD YOU KEEP CALLING
00:07:07OR PEOPLE?
>> WHEN YOU HAVE MORE THAN JUST
00:07:09TWO POSSIBILITIES, YOU HAVE
THREE OR FOUR OR FIVE, HOW DO
00:07:12YOU KEEP TRACK OF THOSE TRENDS
WHEN PEOPLE CAN GO ALL OVER THE
00:07:17PLACE?
>> REMARKABLY DEPENDING ON THE
00:07:19SIZE OF THE UNIVERSE AND THAT IS
WHAT POLLSTERS CALL HOW MANY
00:07:23VOTERS ARE IN THE STATE OR THE
COUNTRY AND DEPENDING ON THE
00:07:26SAMPLE SIZE, WE CAN KNOW WITHIN
WHAT IS CALLED THE MARGIN OF
00:07:28ERROR.
TYPICALLY PLUS OR MINUS THREE OR
00:07:31FOUR, WHAT THOSE TRENDS ARE,
EVEN WITH MULTIPLE-CHOICE
00:07:37QUESTIONS WHICH IS OF ALL THE
ICE CREAMS THAT ARE OUT THERE,
00:07:40WHICH IS YOUR FAVORITE, THE
RESULTS WILL NOT BE MUCH
00:07:44DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE 1000
PEOPLE RANDOMLY SELECTED OR THE
00:07:4911 MILLION.
IF WE ONLY CALLED WOMEN WE WOULD
00:07:50GET A DIFFERENT RESULT.
IF WE ONLY CALLED CLEVELAND WE
00:07:52WOULD GET A DIFFERENT RESULT.
IF WE ONLY CALLED YOUNG PEOPLE,
00:07:55WHICH IS WHY YOUR CHANCE OF
BEING SELECTED FOR THAT POLL
00:08:00MUST BE EQUAL.
EVERYONE IN THE UNIVERSE MUST
00:08:02HAVE AN EQUAL CHANCE OF BEING
CALLED.
00:08:05>> I WANT TO GET TO THAT.
LET'S TALK ABOUT THAT.
00:08:06A LOT OF POLLS HAVE BEEN DONE
OVER THE TELEPHONE FOR MANY
00:08:10YEARS AND NOW YOU HAVE A SHIFT
IN FOLKS WHO ARE NOT USING THEIR
00:08:14LANDLINE PHONES AS MUCH, USING
CELL PHONES, MAYBE EVEN
00:08:15ABANDONING THE LANDLINE.
HOW DO YOU KEEP THAT ACCURACY
00:08:23AND THAT POSSIBILITY OF BEING IN
THAT UNIVERSE IF YOU DO NOT HAVE
00:08:24A PHONE LINE THAT SOMEONE CAN
CALL YOU ON?
00:08:27WRECKS IT HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE
TO POLLSTERS AND THE WAY THEY
00:08:30HAVE DEALT WITH THAT CHALLENGE
IS TO REACH OUT TO PEOPLE WHO
00:08:31ARE CELL PHONE USERS.
CELL PHONE USERS INCLUDE -- I
00:08:36WILL INCLUDE MYSELF -- NEW NOT
LIKE TO GET -- DO NOT LIKE TO
00:08:41GET A CALL THAT IS NOT A
RELATIVE OR A FRIEND THAT TO
00:08:44MAKE SURE YOU HAVE AN ACCURATE
SAMPLE, YOU HAVE GOT TO INCLUDE
00:08:47THOSE PEOPLE WHO DO NOT HAVE A
LANDLINE BUT INSTEAD USE A CELL
00:08:52PHONE.
AND OF COURSE, THEY ARE
00:08:55DIFFERENT FROM OTHER PEOPLE IN
THE POPULATION.
00:08:58THEY ARE INVARIABLY YOUNGER.
IF YOU WANT TO UNDER SEVERAL
00:09:02YOUNG PEOPLE YOU USE LANDMINES
BUT YOU HAVE GOT TO INCLUDE THEM
00:09:05IN A SAMPLE TO MAKE SURE THAT
SAMPLE WILL BE REPRESENTATIVE OF
00:09:10THE POPULATION.
>> HOW DO YOU FIND THESE FOLKS,
00:09:12HOW DO YOU DETERMINE WHEN YOU'RE
TRYING TO SAMPLE ACROSS THE
00:09:14DIFFERENT TO THE GRAPHICS AND
DIFFERENT AGE GROUPS AND RACES
00:09:19AND EDUCATION LEVELS, HOW DO YOU
MATCH THESE FOLKS UP AND MAKE IT
00:09:22SO THAT YOU ARE INCLUDING
EVERYBODY? WRECKS THERE'S A
00:09:26VARIETY OF WAYS OF DOING IT.
SOME CALL ONLY REGISTERED VOTERS
00:09:28AND THAT MIGHT MEAN THEY WORK
FROM A REGISTERED VOTERS LIST OF
00:09:31PHONE NUMBERS NOT ALL OF WHICH
ARE COMPLETE BECAUSE NOT ALL OF
00:09:36US GIVE OUR PHONE NUMBER TO THE
BOARD OF ELECTIONS WHEN WE
00:09:39REGISTERED TO VOTE OR THEY WILL
DIAL ANY DIGITS AND WIND UP
00:09:43GETTING BUSINESSES AND FAX
MACHINES AND OUT OF ORDER
00:09:49NUMBERS.
BECAUSE OF THE CELL PHONE
00:09:50QUESTION, AS WE TAKE TODAY, --
AS WE TAPE, THE AP SAID THEY
00:09:55WILL NO LONGER USE PHONES, THEY
WILL DO ONLY ONLINE POLLS
00:10:00BECAUSE THAT IS THE WAY THE
ASSOCIATED PRESS HAS DECIDED TO
00:10:02DO WITH THE CELL PHONE PROBLEM.
>> I WANT TO ASK YOU ABOUT THE
00:10:05MARGIN OF ERROR.
THIS IDEA THAT THERE IS A AREA
00:10:10THAT THE POLL COULD FALL INTO
AND STILL BE CONSIDERED
00:10:14ACCURATE.
WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE RESULTS
00:10:15FROM 2012 YOU HAD SOME THAT HAD
MITT ROMNEY WINNING AND THE
00:10:18OTHERS HAD THEM TIED IN SOME HAD
PRESIDENT OBAMA WINNING BY
00:10:24THREE.
HE ACTUALLY WON BY MORE THAN
00:10:26THAT.
WERE THESE POLES CONSIDERED
00:10:27ACCURATE OR WERE THE POLLSTERS
BEING OVERLY CAUTIOUS, OVERLY
00:10:31OPTIMISTIC, OVERLY WHATEVER YOU
WANT TO SAY?
00:10:36WRECKS THE ICE CREAM POLL IS
EASIER TO TAKE BECAUSE I COULD
00:10:37ASK EVERYONE WHAT THEIR FACE --
WHAT THEIR FAVORITE IS AND THAT
00:10:44WOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH WHAT
THEY THINK ABOUT ICE CREAM BUT A
00:10:46POLITICAL POLL IS DIFFERENT.
IN ADDITION TO ASK INC. SOMEONE
00:10:48HOW THEY WILL VOTE, FOR MITT
ROMNEY OR BARACK OBAMA, WE HAVE
00:10:52TO PREDICT WHICH PEOPLE WILL
TURN OUT AND VOTE ON ELECTION
00:10:57DAY.
IF WE HAD 100% TURNOUT IN THE
00:11:00ELECTIONS, THE POLLS WE TAKE
WOULD BE MUCH MORE ACCURATE
00:11:04BECAUSE YOU WOULD NOT HAVE TO
PLAY THE GUESSING GAME, WILL
00:11:08YOUNG PEOPLE TURNOUT, WILL
AFRICAN-AMERICANS TURNOUT, WILL
00:11:10RURAL VOTERS OR RELIGIOUS VOTERS
TURN OUT AND UNLESS YOU KNOW
00:11:14THOSE QUESTIONS YOUR POLL CANNOT
BE AS HELPFUL.
00:11:17THE KEY TO THE OBAMA POLLING WAS
THEY HAD A BETTER SENSE OF WHO
00:11:21WAS GOING TO TURN OUT WHICH MADE
THEIR INTERNAL POLLING AND SOME
00:11:26OF THE OTHERS AND THAT YOU CITED
MORE ACCURATE THAN SOME OF THE
00:11:27INTERNAL ONES BY ROMNEY.
>> IN OHIO I HAD THREE POLLS
00:11:34THAT WE LOOKED AT.
THE COLUMBUS WAS THE MOST
00:11:36ACCURATE GIVING THE WIND TO A
BOTTOM -- OBAMA.
00:11:41AND ONE HAD HIM WIN BY FIVE
POINTS.
00:11:52HOW DID THE DISPATCH COME CLOSE?
>> MY SUSPICION IS THAT IT IS
00:11:55BECAUSE PEOPLE ARE ON A
REPRESENTATIVE ACES RESPONDING
00:12:03TO THAT WHOLE.
>> THAT IS A MAIL POLL.
00:12:05>> MAIL POLLS ARE VERY TRICKY.
PEOPLE HAVE TO GO TO SOME EFFORT
00:12:13TO TURN THE BALLOT IN.
IT MAY BE THAT CENTRAL OHIO
00:12:16WHICH IS WHERE THEY GET THIS
HIGHEST RESPONSE RATE, THEY
00:12:20ADJUST FOR THE DIFFERENT REGIONS
OF THE STATE BUT CENTRAL OHIO IS
00:12:24A FAIRLY BALANCED REGION OF THE
STATE.
00:12:25IT MAY BE IF YOUR POLL IS MORE
DEPENDENT UPON THAT, YOU'RE
00:12:30GOING TO GET MORE ACCURATE
REFLECTIONS OF THE ENTIRE
00:12:32ELECTORATE.
IT IS TRICKY.
00:12:32>> THIS WAS STARTED BY THE
ASSOCIATE PUBLISHER AND STATE
00:12:40REPRESENTATIVE AT THE
STATEHOUSE.
00:12:44IN ADDITION TO DOING THE MAIL
POLL, THEY SPEND A LOT OF TIME
00:12:48CALLING BACK PEOPLE WHO HAVE NOT
FILLED OUT THE POLL AND
00:12:50ENCOURAGING THEM TO DO THAT.
A LOT OF FOR-PROFIT POLES WANT
00:12:54TO GET IN QUICKLY AND FIND OUT
THE ANSWER AND GET OUT.
00:12:56I HAVE READ STORIES ABOUT THIS,
THE DISPATCH VALUES THEIR
00:13:04CREDIBILITY AND THEY SPEND A LOT
OF TIME TRACKING DOWN PEOPLE AND
00:13:05SAYING WHAT YOU PLEASE FILL OUT
THE POLL THAT WE SENT YOU.
00:13:11>> THERE WAS A LOT OF
SPECULATION THAT MITT ROMNEY WAS
00:13:20GOING TO WIN.
ROMNEY WAS GOING TO END UP
00:13:22COMING OUT ON TOP AND EVEN YOU
WERE QUOTED IN SOME ARTICLE
00:13:26SAYING THAT YOU THOUGHT ROMNEY
COULD WIN BY TWO POINTS, YOU
00:13:30FELT HE HAD THE MOMENTUM.
HOW DID IT HAPPEN THAT
00:13:32REPUBLICANS, WHO ARE IN THE KNOW
AND SHOULD HAVE KNOWN THAT THE
00:13:35POLLS WERE CORRECT, HOW WERE
THEY WRONG?
00:13:38WRECKS I ALSO SAID THE BLUE
JACKETS WOULD MAKE THE PLAYOFFS
00:13:43LAST YEAR.
>> YOU WERE CLOSE.
00:13:44THIS YEAR.
>> I WAS DOING MY BEST GUESS AT
00:13:51WHO WOULD TURN OUT AND WHO WOULD
NOT EAST ON THE NUMBERS I WAS
00:13:54SAYING AND WHAT I DID NOT
ANTICIPATE AND ROMNEY'S
00:13:57POLLSTERS WOULD SAY THE SAME
THING, IS HOW GOOD THE OBAMA
00:13:59TEAM WAS AT FINDING PEOPLE
COMPLETELY UNLIKELY TO VOTE WHO
00:14:07WERE PRO-OBAMA IN THEIR HEAD BUT
IF THEY DO NOT TURN OUT TO VOTE
00:14:08IT DOES NOT ENTER, THEY HAVE TO
GET TO THE POLLS AND STANDING ON
00:14:10THEIR DOORSTEP UNTIL THEY GOT TO
EARLY VOTING CENTER AND THOSE
00:14:20PEOPLE LIKE MYSELF AND OTHERS
WHO UNDERESTIMATED THE ABILITY
00:14:29TO TURN OUT THOSE FOLKS WOULD
HAVE MADE A MISTAKE LIKE I DID
00:14:30WHICH IS RESUMING THAT ROMNEY
WOULD HAVE WON BY TWO.
00:14:32>> TO ESTIMATE HOW LIKELY PEOPLE
ARE TO VOTE -- VARIOUS POLLS
00:14:43HAVE VARIOUS WAYS OF DOING THIS.
SOME DO IT WELL.
00:14:45GALLUP FOR YEARS HAD A VERY GOOD
LIKELIHOOD OF VOTE PREDICTOR
00:14:49THAT FAILED THEM IN 2012.
IT IS HARD TO KNOW WHEN YOU HAVE
00:14:54AN ELECTORATE LIKE OHIO OR THE
NATIONAL ELECTORATE THAT IS TWO
00:14:58THIRDS VOTERS AND ONE THIRD NON-
VOTERS, YOU DO NOT REALLY KNOW
00:15:01IN ADVANCE WHAT IS GOING TO
HAPPEN WITH THAT NON-VOTING
00:15:05SHARE AND IF THEY TURN OUT AT
UNANTICIPATED LEVELS, THAT CAN
00:15:12SKEW THE RESULTS OF THE POLLS
THEMSELVES CREATE >> I WANT TO
00:15:13ASK ABOUT POLLING THIS EARLY
BECAUSE WE ARE 13 MONTHS OUT.
00:15:17WE HAD -- THE LATEST CANDIDATES
ARE ANNOUNCED AND I LOOK BACK AT
00:15:24THE CAMPAIGN, THE GOVERNOR'S
RACE IN SEPTEMBER 2009.
00:15:30THAT SEEMS TO BE SIMILAR TO THE
POLLS NOW SHOWING THE GOVERNOR
00:15:49AND THE LEG.
IF THESE ARE THE RESULTS NOW,
00:15:52WHY DO THESE POLES SO EARLY?
WRECKS SCHOLARS LIKE TO DO STING
00:15:54WISH BETWEEN ATTITUDES AND NON-
ATTITUDES AND EARLY IN THE
00:15:59CAMPAIGN OR BETWEEN ELECTIONS,
THERE ARE VOTERS WHO DO NOT HAVE
00:16:03ATTITUDES TOWARD CANDIDATES THEY
DO NOT KNOW MUCH ABOUT.
00:16:07THEY MAY HAVE ATTITUDES TOWARD
THE SITTING GOVERNOR AND THEY
00:16:10MAY KNOW WHETHER THEY LIKE HIM
OR DO NOT LIKE HIM AND TO SOME
00:16:12DEGREE, -- PLUS OR MINUS, BUT
WHEN IT COMES TO A CHALLENGER
00:16:21THEY DO NOT KNOW ABOUT, THEY ARE
IN A SITUATION WHERE YOU'RE
00:16:26ASKED A QUESTION AND YOU ARE
EXPECTED TO ANSWER.
00:16:28THEY WILL ANSWER BUT IT IS A
NON-ATTITUDE.
00:16:30THIS IS TRUE WHEN IT COMES TO
ISSUES.
00:16:33THERE ARE A LOT OF ISSUES PEOPLE
HAVE NEVER THOUGHT ABOUT.
00:16:37THEY HAVE NOT FORMULATED
OPINIONS.
00:16:40IT IS NOT TO SAY THAT THEY WILL
NOT WHEN THEY NEED TO BUT THEY
00:16:42DO NOT NEED TO FOR A POLLSTER.
YEARS AGO WE DID A POLL AND THIS
00:16:49WAS A FACE-TO-FACE INTERVIEW.
THE RESPONDENT SAID WHY YOU GUYS
00:16:55INTERVIEWED ME ONCE BEFORE SO I
STUDIED UP THIS TIME.
00:16:58I WANTED TO BE READY.
AND OF COURSE THAT IS NOT WHAT
00:17:02WE WANT AS POLLSTERS AND YET YOU
KIND OF UNDERSTAND IT.
00:17:04PEOPLE FEEL THAT THEY SOMEHOW
HAVE NOT FULFILLED YOUR
00:17:07EXPECTATIONS.
IF THEY SAY I HAD NOT THOUGHT
00:17:11ABOUT THAT, I DO NOT HAVE ANY
IDEA HOW TO RESPOND.
00:17:15GRACIE DID NOT MEAN TO IMPLY
THAT THE RESULTS OF THE 2014
00:17:20ELECTION HAVE BEEN DETERMINED BY
ANY SORT OF POLLING WITH THAT
00:17:23QUESTION BUT I WANTED TO ASK
YOU, INTERNAL POLLING, THE
00:17:25CANDIDATES DO THIS AND YOU HAVE
BEEN INVOLVED WITH THIS AS WELL.
00:17:30HOW DO THE INTERNAL POLLS
DICTATE WHAT THE CANDIDATES ARE
00:17:33GOING TO DO, ARE THEY USING REAL
POLLING DATA OR ARE THEY BEING
00:17:36TOLD WHAT THEY WANT TO HEAR,
BECAUSE IT SEEMS LIKE WHENEVER A
00:17:39CANDIDATE MENTIONS INTERNAL
POLLING IT IS ALWAYS POSITIVE.
00:17:44>> THE POLLS THAT ARE MADE
PUBLIC THIS EARLY ARE NOT MEANT
00:17:49FOR PLANNING BY CANDIDATES,
THEIR MEN FOR THE HORSE RACE
00:17:52INDUSTRY, THE PEOPLE WHO LOVE TO
READ ABOUT POLITICS, WHO IS
00:17:55AHEAD FOR PRESIDENT IN 2016,
THAT IS FOR PROGNOSTICATORS AND
00:18:01THE FANS WHO LIKE TALKING ABOUT
IT BUT INTERNAL POLLING WHICH IS
00:18:05VERY EXPECT -- EXPENSIVE, THEY
TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY.
00:18:10THE MOST IMPORTANT QUESTION TO
ME IS HOW DO WE WIN AND SO BY
00:18:15LOOKING AT A PARTICULAR OPPONENT
IN A MATCHUP AND THE ISSUES THAT
00:18:20CAN BE USED IN THE CAMPAIGN,
SHOULD WE TALK ABOUT JOBS,
00:18:23SHOULD WE TALK ABOUT TAXES,
SHOULD WE TALK ABOUT THE
00:18:26ENVIRONMENT OR ENERGY?
THOSE POLLS INFORM OUR STRATEGIC
00:18:31DECISION SO GOOD INTERNAL
POLLING THIS EARLY ON IS NOT
00:18:33USED TO SEE WHO IS WINNING, IT
IS USED TO SEE HOW DO WE WENT.
00:18:36>> THE CANDIDATES WHO SAY I DO
NOT LISTEN TO POLLS.
00:18:40>> THE GOOD CANDIDATES WILL NOT
CHANGE THEIR BELIEFS BASED ON A
00:18:45POLL.
IT IS THE RARE CANDIDATE WHO
00:18:49SAYS DO A POLL ON ABORTION AND
THAT WILL TELL ME WHAT I THINK
00:18:51ON ABORTION BUT POLLS TELL
CANDIDATES WHICH ISSUES TO TALK
00:18:57ABOUT.
SO A FICTIONAL HANDED IT IS PRO-
00:19:01LIFE BUT THE POLL SAYS THAT MORE
PEOPLE CARE ABOUT JOBS SO THAT
00:19:03CANDIDATE MAY NOT TALK ABOUT
ABORTION UNLESS ASKED BUT WILL
00:19:07SPEND HIS OR HER TIME TALKING
ABOUT JOBS BECAUSE THE POLL SAYS
00:19:12PEOPLE WANT TO HEAR MORE ABOUT
JOBS THAN THEY DO ABOUT ABORTION
00:19:14OR SOME OTHER ISSUE.
>> WE GOT A LOT OF ROBOCALLS AND
00:19:23THE PERSON WILL INTRODUCE HIM OR
HERSELF, I AM TRYING TO TAKE
00:19:34AN INFORMATIVE SAMPLE.
DOES THE IDEA OF ROBO CALLS,
00:19:41PEOPLE HATING THESE OR HANGING
UP, DOES THAT WORRY THE
00:19:46INDUSTRY?
>> THEY ARE RELATIVELY
00:19:47INEXPENSIVE COMPARED TO OTHER
WAYS OF POLLING, SO IF YOU DO
00:19:48NOT HAVE A FAT BUDGET AND WHO
DOES, A LOT OF THE CANDIDATES
00:19:54DO, ACTUALLY BUT IT IS NOT THAT
FAT.
00:19:56THEY HAVE PLENTY OF OTHER WAYS
TO USE THE MONEY.
00:19:58YOU MAY USE THE CALL OR USE THE
ROBOCALL AS A STRAIGHTFORWARD
00:20:02POLL, BUT YOU ARE TAKING
ADVANTAGE OF THE TECHNOLOGY, NOT
00:20:08HAVING TO PAY AN INTERVIEWER OR
INCUR THE KIND OF COST THAT
00:20:10WOULD BE INCURRED IN POLLING.
THEY GET VERY LOW RESPONSE
00:20:17RATES.
WHEN I FIRST STARTED DOING
00:20:19SURVEY RESEARCH THE RESPONSE
RATE WAS UPWARD OF 80% FOR THE
00:20:26HIGH-QUALITY POLLS.
THESE WERE FACE TO FACE,
00:20:28KNOCKING AT THE DOOR, PEOPLE
WERE INCLINED TO WANT TO GIVE AN
00:20:33INTERVIEW.
EVEN FOR THOSE HIGHEST-QUALITY
00:20:34POLLS, THAT RESPONSE RATE HAS
DETERIORATED INTO THE 50'S.
00:20:39FOR TELEPHONE POLES, IT IS LOWER
THAN THAT.
00:20:40FOR THE CALLS, IT IS EVEN LOWER
THAN THAT.
00:20:44>> DO PEOPLE LIE TO POLLSTERS?
REXAM PROBABLY DO.
00:20:48-- >> SOME PROBABLY DO.
MOST PEOPLE WHEN ASKED A
00:20:56QUESTION WANT TO ANSWER AS
HONESTLY AS THEY CAN.
00:20:59THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF RESEARCH
DONE ON THAT ESPECIALLY IN THE
00:21:02EARLY DAYS AND THAT RESEARCH
SHOWED THAT PEOPLE TOOK THIS
00:21:05SERIOUSLY.
WHETHER THEY STILL DO, I THINK
00:21:08WE ARE OVER SATURATED WITH POLLS
.
00:21:13PEOPLE HAVE DEVELOPED A
SKEPTICISM ABOUT THEM DID ENDING
00:21:16ON THE AIR UP.
CONSERVATIVES MAY BE MORE
00:21:21SKEPTICAL THAN LIBERALS, IT
DEPENDS ON THE TIMES SO THERE
00:21:25ARE A LOT OF REASONS NOT TO TAKE
THEM THAT SERIOUSLY AND HAVE FUN
00:21:29WITH THEM AND BE A MISCHIEVOUS.
I DO NOT THINK IT HAPPENS THAT
00:21:35MUCH.
>> ON THE REPUBLICAN SIDE I
00:21:36THINK THERE IS THIS SUSPICION OF
POLLS, ONLY CERTAIN PEOPLE ARE
00:21:39BEING ASKED TO RESPOND, A LOT OF
FOLKS SAY I HAVE NEVER PUT MY
00:21:45FAITH IN A POLL SO WHERE DID
THAT COME FROM?
00:21:47>> WHEN IT IS SPONSORED BY A
MEDIA OUTLET THAT THAT VOTER
00:21:51DOES NOT TRUST IN THAT VOTER IS
NOT GOING TO BELIEVE THAT POLL.
00:21:53WHETHER OR NOT THAT MEDIA OUTLET
COOKED THE POLL NUMBERS, I DOUBT
00:21:57THEY DID BUT IF THEY DID PEOPLE
WILL SAY THAT WAS DONE BY THIS
00:21:59OUTLET AND WE KNOW HOW THEY FEEL
ABOUT MY ISSUES.
00:22:02PEOPLE ARE QUICK TO DISMISS IT.
I AGREE.
00:22:06MOST VOTERS DO NOT LIE AND THOSE
WHO DO ARE CAUGHT UP IN THE
00:22:09MARGIN OF ERROR.
THERE IS A TOLERANCE FOR THAT.
00:22:11WHAT WE SEE IS WHAT POLLSTERS
CALL A DEMAND CHARACTERISTIC.
00:22:17YOU CAN ASK A QUESTION THAT A
VOTER WILL NOT TELL YOU HER OR
00:22:19HIS TRUTH ON BECAUSE THEY DO NOT
WANT TO TELL A STRANGER HOW THEY
00:22:24FEEL ABOUT THAT TOPIC AND THEY
MIGHT SAY THE ISSUE THAT IS MORE
00:22:29POLITICALLY OR SOCIALLY
ACCEPTABLE WHEN IN THEIR HEART
00:22:31THEY THINK SOMETHING ELSE AND IN
THE PRIVACY OF A VOTING BOOTH,
00:22:34THEY MAY VOTE ANOTHER WAY.
DEMAND CHARACTERISTICS ARE
00:22:36SOMETHING THAT POLLSTERS LOOK
FOR AS WELL.
00:22:41>> THERE WAS A LOT OF POLLING
DONE BEFORE THE SHUTDOWN AND
00:22:43POLLING CONTINUES ALL THE TIME
AND I AM WONDERING, WHAT DO YOU
00:22:47THINK THE EFFECT OF THE SHUTDOWN
WILL BE SINCE WE HAVE GOT THIS
00:22:51STRONG DIVISION BETWEEN WHO IS
GETTING THE BLAME AND I'M
00:22:55LOOKING SPECIFICALLY AT THE TEA
PARTY CANDIDATE TO A LOT OF
00:22:57FOLKS ARE TARGETING AS BEING THE
FOLKS WHO ARE KEY IN THIS.
00:23:02COULD THEY HAVE A BACKLASH,
COULD THEY HAVE GREAT SUCCESS
00:23:07OUT OF THIS SHUTDOWN?
WRECKS I READ SEVERAL POLLS ON
00:23:10THIS TOPIC AND HERE IS WHAT WE
ARE SAYING.
00:23:11-- SEEING.
THE PEOPLE WHO LIKE REPUBLICANS
00:23:16AND DISLIKE DEMOCRATS WILL LIMP
DEMOCRATS AND THE PEOPLE WHO
00:23:21DISLIKE REPUBLICANS AND LIKE
DEMOCRATS WILL BLAME THE
00:23:24REPUBLICANS.
PEOPLE WHO ARE IN THE MIDDLE
00:23:27WILL BLAME THE PRESIDENT OR
CONGRESS AND THINGS WILL TRUDGE
00:23:33ON POLITICALLY AS THEY HAVE.
>> WHAT ABOUT THAT TEA PARTY
00:23:35CANDIDATES IN PARTICULAR, THERE
ARE A HANDFUL THAT ARE LOOKED AT
00:23:39AS BEING IN THE MIDDLE OF ALL
THIS?
00:23:41WRECKS ANY TEA PARTY CANDIDATE
THAT IS LIKELY TO WIN IS GOING
00:23:44TO BE IN THE DISTRICT WILL THEY
-- WHERE THEY WILL NOT HAVE A
00:23:48GENERAL ELECTION.
IN PRIMARIES, AND DEMOCRATS RUN
00:23:53TO THE LEFT AND REPUBLICANS RUN
TO THE RIGHT AND THAT IS HOW YOU
00:23:56WIN THE PRIMARY.
>> IS THIS THE ISSUE THEY WILL
00:24:00WIN ON?
>> WE DO NOT KNOW YET.
00:24:02PEOPLE CAN ANTICIPATE OR RIGHT
NOW WHEN ASKED, WHEN ONE SIDE OR
00:24:08ANOTHER, BUT A LOT OF IT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW THIS PLAYS OUT
00:24:11OVER TIME.
THAT IS THE RISK BOTH SIDES RUN
00:24:14IS THAT THEY MAY SAY SOMETHING
THAT FOR SOME REASON OR ANOTHER
00:24:18PUSHES PEOPLE IN THE OTHER
DIRECTION.
00:24:20HERE SHE SHOULD -- HE OR SHE
SHOULD NOT HAVE SAID THAT.
00:24:26THAT IS THE BATTLE THAT IS GOING
ON RIGHT NOW.
00:24:27AND THE OTHER THING THAT IS A
VALID POINT THAT MARK MADE, MOST
00:24:32ALTERATIONS AND MOST MEMBERS OF
CONGRESS THESE COME -- THESE
00:24:37DAYS COME FROM SAFE DISTRICTS SO
IT IS NOT GOING TO MATTER MUCH
00:24:42IN THEIR DISTRICT EXCEPT FOR
THEIR FEAR OF HAVING PRIMARY
00:24:44OPPOSITION IF THEY STRAY FROM
THE MEDIAN VOTER FROM THEIR
00:24:50REPUBLICAN OR DEMOCRATIC
CONSTITUENCY BUT THERE ARE A SET
00:24:54OF MEMBERS OF CONGRESS WHO ARE
IN SO-CALLED SWING DISTRICTS.
00:24:57THOSE NUMBERS HAVE DWINDLED.
THE NUMBER I SAW WAS 17 DISTRICT
00:25:06AROUND THE COUNTRY THAT WERE WON
BY OBAMA BUT HALF REPUBLICAN
00:25:11MEMBERS OF CONGRESS. THAT IS NOT
AREA MANY.
00:25:13CONSTITUENCY DOES MATTER.
BUT WHAT POLITICIANS LIVE IN
00:25:20FEAR OF IS NOT WHAT IS HAPPENING
RIGHT NOW, BUT HOW IT IS GOING
00:25:25TO PLAY AFTERWARDS WHEN IT IS
TOO LATE FOR THEM TO CHANGE
00:25:28ANYTHING.
AND THERE IS AN UNKNOWN OUT
00:25:34THERE, THERE IS A RISK THAT THEY
ARE ALL TAKING, DEMOCRATS AND
00:25:36REPUBLICANS.
>> POLLSTERS WILL BE ABLE TO
00:25:41FOLLOW THAT AS THEY GO ALONG.
THANK YOU FOR BEING HERE.
00:25:45>> THANK YOU.
>> THANK YOU.
00:25:46>> NEXT WEEK, SOME THOUGHTS FROM
PAUL BECK AND MARK WEAVER ON THE
00:25:52FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN ON
WHAT POLLING MIGHT BE SHOWING
00:25:55ABOUT IT.
AND THAT IS IT FOR THIS WEEK.
00:25:56FOR MY COLLEAGUES AT OHIO PUBLIC
RADIO AND TELEVISION, THANKS FOR
00:25:57WATCHING.
IF YOU WOULD LIKE TO ASK
00:25:59QUESTIONS, MAKE COMMENTS, OR
WATCH THIS WEEK'S SHOW OR
00:26:01EARLIER EPISODES, PLEASE VISIT
OUR WEBSITE AT STATENEWS.ORG.
00:26:04YOU CAN ALSO CHECK US OUT ON
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00:26:06INGLES, ANDY CHOW AND ME ON
TWITTER.
00:26:08AND PLEASE JOIN US AGAIN NEXT
TIME FOR "THE STATE OF OHIO."
00:26:11CAPTIONED BY THE
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00:26:16--WWW.NCICAP.ORG--
>> SUPPORT FOR THE STATEWIDE
00:26:20BROADCAST FOR THE STATE OF OHIO
Note : Transcripts are compiled from uncorrected captions