There are no markers for this video.
00:00:01>> SUPPORT FOR THE STATEWIDE
BROADCAST OF THE STATE OF OHIO
00:00:03COMES FROM THE LAW OFFICES OF
PORTER, WRIGHT, MORRIS AND
00:00:06ARTHUR, LLP.
HELPING BUSINESS AND INDIVIDUAL
00:00:10WITH COMPLEX LEGAL PROBLEMS IN
OHIO, ACROSS THE COUNTRY AND
00:00:13AROUND THE WORLD.
ONLINE AT PORTERWRIGHT.COM.
00:00:16AND FROM THE OHIO EDUCATION
ASSOCIATION, REPRESENTING
00:00:19121,000 TEACHERS, SUPPORT
PROFESSIONAL AND HIGHER
00:00:23EDUCATION FACULTY COMMITTED TO
THE SUCCESS OF EVERY CHILD.
00:00:26ONLINE AT OHEA.COM.
>> LAWMAKERS WITH THE INCOMING
00:00:31GENERAL ASSEMBLY ARE GETTING A
HEAD START, WHILE THE CURRENT
00:00:34LEGISLATURE STARTS WRAPPING UP
ITS WORK.
00:00:36AND OHIO IS GETTING OLDER LIKE
THE REST OF THE COUNTRY AND THE
00:00:38WORLD.
BUT TWO RESEARCHERS SAY THE
00:00:41SILVER TSUNAMI THAT'S AHEAD
COULD SINK THE STATE IN A
00:00:44MULTI-BILLION DOLLAR DEFICIT.
ALL THIS WEEK IN "THE STATE OF
00:00:48OHIO."
[CAPTIONING PERFORMED BY THE
00:00:51NATIONAL CAPTIONING INSTITUTE,
WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR ITS
00:00:53CAPTION CONTENT AND ACCURACY.
VISIT NCICAP.ORG]
00:00:54>> THE 131ST GENERAL ASSEMBLY IS
GETTING SET UP THIS MONTH
00:01:04FIRST, WITH THE VOTE AMONG HOUSE
REPUBLICANS FOR THEIR HOUSE
00:01:06SPEAKER.
AND THIS TIME THE PICK WAS
00:01:12HISTORIC - CLIFF ROSENBERGER OF
CLARKSVILLE IN SOUTHWEST OHIO,
00:01:13WHO WILL BE THE FIRST ASIAN
AMERICAN SPEAKER OF THE OHIO
00:01:16HOUSE, AND, AT 33 YEARS OLD, THE
YOUNGEST SPEAKER IN RECENT
00:01:18HISTORY.
ROSENBERGER, WHO'S A VETERAN OF
00:01:21THE AIR FORCE AND WORKED IN
PRESIDENT GEORGE W.
00:01:23BUSH'S ADMINISTRATION, WON THE
JOB AFTER BROKERING A DEAL WITH
00:01:27LONGTIME REP.
RON AMSTUTZ OF WOOSTER THIS
00:01:30SUMMER.
ROSENBERGER SAID THE PARTY NEEDS
00:01:32TO FOCUS ON THE WORK AHEAD.
>> WHAT WE WANT TO DO IS TO MOVE
00:01:37IN THE NEXT DIRECTION AND GET
INTO A PLACE WHERE WHEN WE LOOK
00:01:39AT LEGISLATION IN THE FUTURE --
WE DON'T WANT TO JUST THINK
00:01:42EVERY TWO YEARS WE WANT TO THINK
MORE LONG TERM SO HOW DO WE MOVE
00:01:44FORWARD IN THE RIGHT PLAN
TOGETHER AS A CAUCUS TO DO THAT
00:01:46AND THAT'S WHAT WE'RE GOING TO
WORK TOGETHER AS A CAUCUS ON.
00:01:55>> IT'S NO LONGER A SURPRISE NOW
THAT ROSENBERGER WON THE
00:01:57SPEAKER'S JOB OVER AMSTUTZ, BUT
AT THE TIME THE DEAL WAS STRUCK,
00:02:02IT WAS - AMSTUTZ IS CHAIR OF THE
HOUSE FINANCE COMMITTEE, AND HAS
00:02:0430 YEARS TOTAL AS A LAWMAKER IN
THE HOUSE AND THE SENATE.
00:02:06BUT WITH THE DEAL, AMSTUTZ
BECAME THE SPEAKER PRO TEMPORE,
00:02:08THE SECOND IN COMMAND IN THE
HOUSE.
00:02:09BUT THAT DIDN'T MEAN THE WAY WAS
COMPLETELY CLEAR.
00:02:12JIM BUTLER OF DAYTON EMERGED AS
A TEA PARTY CHALLENGER TO
00:02:15ROSENBERGER.
THOSE SUPPORTING BUTLER WERE
00:02:18UNHAPPY ABOUT THE PROCESS
LEADING UP TO THE SPEAKERSHIP
00:02:21VOTE AND THE IDEA THAT A WINNER
WAS ESSENTIALLY PICKED MONTHS
00:02:25BEFORE THE NOVEMBER ELECTIONS.
THE LEADERSHIP VOTE WAS
00:02:29ANONYMOUS.
ROSENBERGER SAID IT'S NOW TIME
00:02:30FOR GOP LEGISLATORS TO UNITE.
>> OUR CAUCUS IS GOING TO BE
00:02:35STRONG.
WE'RE GOING TO CONTINUE DOING
00:02:37THE RIGHT THINGS TO PUT OHIO IN
THE RIGHT DIRECTION MAKE SURE
00:02:39THE QUALITY OF LIFE IS STRONG
AND MAKE SURE OUR NUMBER ONE
00:02:42TASK AS WE GO FORWARD IS TO MAKE
SURE WE CONTINUE TO FIND WAYS TO
00:02:45CREATE JOBS FOR OUR STATE AND TO
KEEP OUR CITIZENS EMPLOYED
00:02:47MOVING FORWARD.
AND WE'RE GONNA DO IT TOGETHER.
00:02:53>> THOSE WHO SUPPORTED BUTLER
DID NOT WANT TO COMMENT ON THE
00:02:55RESULTS OF THE VOTE.
BUT TEA PARTY ACTIVISTS OUTSIDE
00:02:57THE STATEHOUSE WERE INFURIATED.
TOM ZAWISTOWSKI IS THE EXECUTIVE
00:03:01DIRECTOR OF THE PORTAGE COUNTY
TEA PARTY, AND HE SAYS THE DEAL
00:03:03WAS ENGINEERED FROM THE START BY
GOV. JOHN KASICH.
00:03:10>> LET'S BE FRANK ABOUT IT -
GOV. KASICH PICKED ROSENBERGER.
00:03:12GOV. KASICH IS PICKING THE
LEADER OF THE HOUSE.
00:03:14THAT'S NOT HIS JOB.
THAT'S FLAT OUT WRONG.
00:03:17IT'S OUR HOUSE.
THEY SHOULD BE AN INDEPENDENT
00:03:20BODY.
THEY SHOULD DO WHAT THEY THINK
00:03:22IS BEST.
BUT YOU KNOW WHAT?
00:03:24THEY CAN'T, BECAUSE OF
INTIMIDATION, THREATS AND
00:03:26BRIBERY, AND THAT'S WHY THEY HAD
A SECRET BALLOT.
00:03:31WE'RE SICK OF IT.
WE'RE SICK OF THE CORRUPTION.
00:03:35JOHN KASICH, BE GOVERNOR, DO
YOUR JOB.
00:03:37BUT WE WILL NOT HAVE A
DICTATORSHIP IN THE STATE OF
00:03:42OHIO.
>> ROSENBERGER IS SAID TO HAVE
00:03:46HAD THE BACKING OF TWO OF
KASICH'S TOP ADVISORS.
00:03:47ROSENBERGER WILL TAKE OVER FOR
SPEAKER BILL BATCHELDER OF
00:03:49MEDINA, WHO IS TERM LIMITED
AFTER TWO SEPARATE STINTS IN THE
00:03:51HOUSE AND NEARLY FOUR DECADES IN
PUBLIC OFFICE.
00:03:57BARBARA SEARS OF SYLVANIA WILL
CONTINUE SERVING AS MAJORITY
00:03:59FLOOR LEADER.
JIM BUCHY OF GREENVILLE WILL BE
00:04:03ASSISTANT MAJORITY FLOOR LEADER.
MIKE DOVILLA OF BEREA AND
00:04:05DOROTHY PELANDA OF MARYSVILLE
WILL BE MAJORITY AND ASSISTANT
00:04:08MAJORITY WHIP RESPECTIVELY.
HOUSE DEMOCRATS ARE EXPECTED TO
00:04:12HOLD THEIR LEADERSHIP VOTE NEXT
WEEK.
00:04:14THE FRONTRUNNERS FOR THAT
POSITION ARE SAID TO BE REP.
00:04:17FRED STRAHORN OF DAYTON, A
FORMER STATE SENATOR WHO'LL BE
00:04:20STARTING HIS SECOND FULL TERM IN
THE HOUSE, AND INCOMING REP.
00:04:26DAVID LELAND OF COLUMBUS, WHO
FIRST SERVED IN THE OHIO HOUSE
00:04:28BACK IN THE MID 80S AND ALSO
SERVED AS OHIO DEMOCRATIC PARTY
00:04:30CHAIR IN THE MID 90S.
FOR A WEEK THAT INCLUDED A STATE
00:04:34HOLIDAY VETERANS DAY IT WAS
CERTAINLY BUSY AROUND THE
00:04:37STATEHOUSE.
THE LAME DUCK SESSION IS
00:04:43UNDERWAY - IN FACT, IT COULD BE
ARGUED THAT IT STARTED JUST
00:04:45HOURS AFTER ELECTION RESULTS
CAME IN WITH A VOTE IN A HOUSE
00:04:47COMMITTEE TO REPEAL THE COMMON
CORE EDUCATION STANDARDS.
00:04:49BUT THAT'S NOT THE ONLY THING
THAT'S LIKELY TO COME UP IN THE
00:04:51NEXT FEW WEEKS BEFORE THE
TWO-YEAR SESSION OF THE GENERAL
00:04:53ASSEMBLY CLOSES AT THE END OF
THE YEAR.
00:04:57OUTGOING SPEAKER BATCHELDER
EXPECTS LAWMAKERS TO DISCUSS
00:04:58BILLS ON DEALING WITH
REDISTRICTING, TOXIC ALGAE
00:05:02BLOOMS AND EXECUTION DRUGS,
REGULATIONS ON TELEPHONE
00:05:05COMPANIES AND CREDIT UNIONS, AND
BILLS ON EDUCATION BUT
00:05:08BATCHELDER ADMITS THERE COULD BE
OTHER ISSUES.
00:05:14>> IT ISN'T CALLED LAME DUCK FOR
ANY PARTICULAR REASON EXCEPT
00:05:19THAT YOU NEVER KNOW WHAT THE
HELL IS GOING TO HAPPEN NEXT.
00:05:21AND AS A RESULT OF THAT, IF
YOU'RE FOLLOWING AREAS, PLEASE
00:05:25KEEP FOLLOWING THEM.
IF YOU FIND THAT THERE'S A
00:05:31PROBLEM, PLEASE LET US KNOW.
>> HE HAS BEEN LEADING A SUPER
00:05:39MAJORITY.
IN THE INCOMING CLASS THERE WILL
00:05:41BE 34 DEMOCRATS.
IN THE SENATE, WHERE REPUBLICANS
00:05:47DOMINATE DEMOCRATS 2-1, THERE
ARE 10 PAGES OF BILLS PENDING IN
00:05:49COMMITTEES, ACCORDING TO
PRESIDENT KEITH FABER.
00:05:51HE SAYS HE EXPECTS ACTION ON A
MUNICIPAL TAX CHANGES BILL, AND
00:05:54ALSO MEASURES ON TRAFFIC
CAMERAS, GUN REGULATIONS, LOCAL
00:05:57GOVERNMENT FUNDING AND
EDUCATION, WHICH HE SAYS THE 23
00:06:00MEMBERS OF THE REPUBLICAN SENATE
CAUCUS WILL MEET TO DISCUSS THIS
00:06:02WEEK.
>> ULTIMATELY WHERE WE GO IN THE
00:06:08STATE SENATE IN THIS NEXT CYCLE
WILL BE LARGELY DETERMINED BY
00:06:10THE MEMBERS, BECAUSE THAT'S THE
WAY THE SENATE'S OPERATED THIS
00:06:14LAST TWO YEARS IT HAS BEEN A
MEMBER-DRIVEN AGENDA.
00:06:21>> BATCHELDER HAS SEEN SOME
SPLITS AMONG HIS SUPERMAJORITY,
00:06:23MOST NOTABLY OVER MEDICAID
EXPANSION.
00:06:26KASICH ENDED UP GETTING THAT
ENACTED BY GOING TO A SMALLER
00:06:28PANEL OF LAWMAKERS ON THE STATE
CONTROLLING BOARD.
00:06:30MEDICAID EXPANSION MUST BE
RENEWED, AND FABER SAYS HE
00:06:32DOESN'T EXPECT THAT TO BE PART
OF THE BUDGET, BUT SAYS HE'S
00:06:34OPEN TO DISCUSSIONS ABOUT IT.
AWAY FROM THE STATEHOUSE, THERE
00:06:39WAS PLENTY OF NEWS TOO.
AS WE REPORTED ON ELECTION NIGHT
00:06:43AND ON THIS SHOW LAST WEEK, OHIO
DEMOCRATIC PARTY CHAIR CHRIS
00:06:46REDFERN IS RESIGNING, EFFECTIVE
MID-DECEMBER.
00:06:48AND AS EXPECTED, THERE'S LOTS OF
SPECULATION ABOUT WHO MIGHT
00:06:51REPLACE HIM.
THE NAME THAT EMERGED WITHIN
00:06:55HOURS OF THAT ANNOUNCEMENT WAS
THAT OF FORMER STATE
00:06:57REPRESENTATIVE DENNY
WOJTANOWSKI, WHO US SEN.
00:07:00SHERROD BROWN TALKED UP IN A
SERIES OF INTERVIEWS WITH
00:07:01REPORTERS.
BUT WOJTANOWSKI BOWED OUT JUST
00:07:04TWO DAYS LATER.
THAT OPENED UP THE FIELD, AND
00:07:07NOW ONE OF THE FIVE LOSING
STATEWIDE CANDIDATES ON LAST
00:07:10WEEK'S BALLOT SAYS HE'S
INTERESTED.
00:07:13DAVID PEPPER WAGED AN UPHILL
BATTLE AGAINST ATTORNEY GENERAL
00:07:15MIKE DEWINE, AND SAYS HE WASN'T
THINKING ABOUT BEING ODP CHAIR
00:07:18LAST WEEK, BUT HE IS NOW.
>> WE NEED SOME LEADERSHIP WE
00:07:23NEED A LOT OF NEW ENERGY.
WE NEED TO THINK THROUGH HOW DO
00:07:25WE GET OUR OWN VOTERS MORE
MOTIVATED AS WELL AS A LOT OF
00:07:28OTHER FOLKS TO VOTE WITH US.
AND I HAVE EXPRESSED INTERESTED
00:07:33IN BEING PART OF THE TEAM THAT
HELPS CHANGE THE OUTCOMES OF
00:07:39THESE ELECTIONS.
>> PEPPER SAYS A BAD NATIONAL
00:07:42PICTURE AND TROUBLES AT THE TOP
OF THE TICKET LED TO THE
00:07:44SHELLING THAT DEMOCRATS GOT IN
LAST WEEK'S ELECTIONS INCLUDING
00:07:45IN HIS RACE.
IT'S THE SECOND STATEWIDE LOSS
00:07:48FOR PEPPER, A FORMER CINCINNATI
CITY COUNCILMAN AND HAMILTON
00:07:50COUNTY COMMISSION PRESIDENT, WHO
RAN FOR AUDITOR IN 2010.
00:07:55AND PEPPER SAYS HE'S BEEN
TALKING TO SEN. NINA TURNER OF
00:08:03CLEVELAND, WHO RAN FOR SECRETARY
OF STATE, ABOUT A PARTNERSHIP IN
00:08:05THE TOP OFFICES OF THE ODP.
TURNER CONFIRMS THAT SHE AND
00:08:06PEPPER DEVELOPED A CLOSE
RELATIONSHIP DURING THE CAMPAIGN
00:08:08AND THAT THEY'VE TALKED ABOUT
THIS, BUT SAYS OF HER INTEREST
00:08:11IN THE PARTY CHAIRMANSHIP THAT
SHE'S NOT IN HER WORDS - GOING
00:08:19TO LOCK MYSELF INTO ANY
POSITION.
00:08:23AND SHE NOTES THAT OHIO'S
DEMOCRATIC MEMBERS OF CONGRESS
00:08:25HAVE ASKED FOR WHAT THEY CALL A
"DELIBERATE AND INCLUSIVE
00:08:27PROCESS" IN PICKING A PARTY
CHAIR.
00:08:28HOWEVER, TURNER ADMITS TIME IS
OF THE ESSENCE WHEN IT COMES TO
00:08:30TALKING ABOUT WHY DEMOCRATIC
CANDIDATES DID SO POORLY IN THIS
00:08:31YEAR'S ELECTION, UNDER REDFERN'S
LEADERSHIP.
00:08:35>> FOR EVERYBODY OR SOME PEOPLE
TO LAY THIS ALL AT HIS FEET I
00:08:38THINK IS UNFAIR.
WE AS A PARTY, AS A COLLECTIVE -
00:08:44THAT'S WHY WE'RE CALLED A PARTY
- WE NEED TO LOOK AT WHERE WE GO
00:08:50FROM HERE AND ACT ACCORDINGLY.
ANOTHER POSSIBLE CANDIDATE FOR
00:08:52THE CHAIRMANSHIP IS JANET
CARSON, CHAIR OF THE GEAUGA
00:08:55COUNTY DEMOCRATIC PARTY AND THE
PRESIDENT OF THE 88 DEMOCRATIC
00:08:57PARTY CHAIRS.
THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IS EXPECTED
00:09:03TO DECIDE ON A NEW CHAIR AT A
MEETING IN DECEMBER, WHEN
00:09:05REDFERN'S RESIGNATION TAKES
EFFECT.
00:09:08MEANWHILE, REDFERN IS NAMED IN A
LAWSUIT AGAINST THE OHIO
00:09:11DEMOCRATIC PARTY BY A DEMOCRATIC
STATE LAWMAKER.
00:09:15REP. JOHN BARNES JR OF
CLEVELAND, WHO IS AFRICAN
00:09:17AMERICAN, CLAIMS HE WAS DEFAMED
AND FACED RETRIBUTION FOR
00:09:20CALLING OUT INSTITUTIONAL RACISM
THAT GOES BACK SEVERAL YEARS.
00:09:25BARNES SAYS HE INTENTIONALLY
HELD BACK ON THE LAWSUIT TO
00:09:28PREVENT HURTING THE PARTY DURING
THE ELECTION.
00:09:31BARNES SAYS BECAUSE HE REFUSED
TO JOIN THE OHIO LEGISLATIVE
00:09:34BLACK CAUCUS, HE LOST COMMITTEE
ASSIGNMENTS AND THAT HE WAS
00:09:38PROHIBITED FROM DEALING DIRECTLY
WITH DEMOCRATIC HOUSE LEADERS
00:09:43WHO WERE WHITE IN A
"PLANTATION-STYLE" LEGISLATIVE
00:09:45HIERARCHY.
>> THIS BEHAVIOR ON
00:09:57AFRICAN-AMERICAN MEMBERS, THEY
HAVE TO GO THROUGH ANOTHER DOOR.
00:10:01THE WHITE MEMBERS GO THROUGH
ANOTHER DOOR AND THEY EXPECT YOU
00:10:06TO STAY IN A BOX.
THEY EXPECT YOU TO STAY IN A
00:10:10BOX.
THEY EXPECT YOU TO STAY IN A BOX
00:10:16WHERE YOUR VOICE IS MINIMIZED IN
THE PROCESS.
00:10:17WE CAN'T TOLERATE.
ENOUGH IS ENOUGH.
00:10:19>> AND BARNES SAYS HE FACED DOWN
WHAT HE CALLED "OUTRIGHT LIES"
00:10:23IN A NASTY PRIMARY CHALLENGE
THIS SPRING FROM NORTHEAST OHIO
00:10:26POLITICAL BLOGGER JILL MILLER
ZIMON, WHO WAS ENDORSED BY THE
00:10:29PARTY.
BARNES IS ASKING FOR AT LEAST
00:10:31$50,000 IN COMPENSATORY AND
PUNITIVE DAMAGES PLUS COSTS.
00:10:37REDFERN CALLED BARNES "A
DEMOCRAT IN NAME ONLY" WHO'S
00:10:42UPSET OVER LOSING THE PARTY'S
ENDORSEMENT, AND SAID IN A
00:10:48STATEMENT "THE PARTY IS NOT
COMMENTING ON ONGOING
00:10:50LITIGATION, HOWEVER FRIVOLOUS IT
MAY BE."
00:10:51BY 2030, THE POPULATION OF
PEOPLE OVER 65 WILL NEARLY
00:10:53DOUBLE TO 70 MILLION, AND ONE IN
FOUR AMERICANS WILL BE OVER 50
00:10:55THAT YEAR.
AND FIVE YEARS LATER, IN 2035,
00:11:01HALF OF OHIO'S POPULATION WILL
EITHER BE PEOPLE OVER 65 OR
00:11:09CHILDREN - AND THOSE FOLKS DON'T
EARN MUCH MONEY OR PAY MUCH IN
00:11:10TAXES, BUT DO TEND TO USE
GOVERNMENT SERVICES.
00:11:13THE COMING "SILVER TSUNAMI", AS
SOME HAVE CALLED IT, INSPIRED
00:11:15ONE OF THE STATE'S LEADING
SOCIAL SERVICES AND PUBLIC
00:11:19POLICY RESEARCH GROUPS TO LOOK
INTO ITS IMPACT ON THE STATE
00:11:21BUDGET AND SPENDING.
THE RESULT IS THIS REPORT FROM
00:11:24THE CENTER FOR COMMUNITY
SOLUTIONS, WHICH SAYS THAT BY
00:11:272035, THE GREYING OF OHIO WILL
LIKELY MEAN A NEARLY $1.2
00:11:32BILLION DECLINE IN ANNUAL STATE
INCOME TAX REVENUE COUPLED WITH
00:11:36INCREASES IN MEDICAID SPENDING
THAT WILL ADD UP TO NEARLY $680
00:11:39MILLION ANNUALLY.
HERE TO TALK ABOUT THOSE HUGE
00:11:44NUMBERS AND WHAT CAN BE DONE
ABOUT THEM ARE TWO OF THE REPORT
00:11:50AUTHORS - JON HONECK FROM THE
CENTER FOR COMMUNITY SOLUTIONS
00:11:52AND BILL LAFAYETTE, AN ECONOMIST
WHO'S ALSO THE FOUNDER OF
00:11:55REGIONOMICS, WHICH ANALYZES
LOCAL ECONOMIES.
00:12:01WOULD YOU CALL THIS A CROSSROADS
WE ARE APPROACHING WITH THESE
00:12:04BIG NUMBERS?
HALF THE POPULATION THAT IS NOT
00:12:09IN THE WORKFORCE FULL-TIME, MOST
OF THEM, THAT IS A BIG DEAL.
00:12:12>> IT IS AN UNPRECEDENTED
SITUATION FOR OUR SOCIETY.
00:12:17WE WILL HAVE AS MANY SENIORS AS
WE WILL KIDS.
00:12:20THAT HAS NEVER BEEN EXPERIENCED
BEFORE IN HUMAN HISTORY.
00:12:26I THINK THE OVER 85 POPULATION
WILL GROW BY SEVERAL HUNDRED
00:12:30THOUSAND.
THEY WILL BE IN NEED OF NURSING
00:12:31HOME CARE AND CAREGIVING IN
GENERAL FROM FAMILY MEMBERS,
00:12:38HOWEVER THAT IS TAKING CARE OF.
SO WE CAN SORT OF SEE WHAT IS
00:12:41COMING.
THAT IS WHY WE DID THIS REPORT.
00:12:43TO GET PEOPLE TALKING ABOUT
THESE TRENDS AND UNDERSTANDING,
00:12:49NOT TO INDUCE PANIC, BUT TO SEE
DEMOGRAPHICALLY WHAT IS COMING
00:12:54DOWN THE ROAD.
WE CAN TAKE STEPS TO PREPARE.
00:12:55>> LOOKING 21 YEARS INTO THE
FUTURE, $2 BILLION WHEN YOU ADD
00:13:01UP THE LOSS OF INCOME TAX
REVENUE.
00:13:05SO WHAT BRINGS YOU TO THAT
CONCLUSION AND IS IT REALLY
00:13:09GOING TO BE AS BAD AS THAT?
>> LET'S PUT IT IN PERSPECTIVE.
00:13:13WE HAD A BUDGET CRISIS A FEW
YEARS AGO, THE TALK WAS ABOUT $6
00:13:18BILLION DEFICIT.
IT IS NOT THAT BAD.
00:13:22IT IS BAD ENOUGH.
MAYBE THE EQUIVALENT OF A MINOR
00:13:25RECESSION.
IT IS GOING TO HAPPEN SLOWLY.
00:13:27THE MAIN THING DRIVING THE
INCOME TAX CHANGES ARE PEOPLE
00:13:32RETIRING, EVEN THOUGH PEOPLE NOW
ARE WORKING LONGER THAN THEY
00:13:38HAVE IN PREVIOUS GENERATIONS.
THEY ARE HEALTHIER.
00:13:39AT SOME POINT THEY ARE GOING TO
LEAVE THE LABOR FORCE.
00:13:42LOOKING AT THE WAY THE
POPULATION OF CHANGE, HUNDREDS
00:13:50OF THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE WILL
LEAVE THE LABOR FORCE AND IT
00:13:52WILL START TO SHRINK AROUND
2030.
00:13:57THOSE PEOPLE WILL HAVE SOME
INCOME FROM SOCIAL SECURITY,
00:14:00WHATEVER SAVINGS THEY HAVE.
BUT THAT WILL AFFECT THE INCOME
00:14:05TAX.
IT WILL AFFECT THE AMOUNT OF
00:14:08RESOURCES THE STATE HAS TO PAY
FOR PUBLIC SERVICES.
00:14:14>> BILL, THE STATE IS MOVING
AWAY FROM RELIANCE ON INCOME
00:14:18TAX.
AND PUTTING IN THESE TWO
00:14:21SLOWDOWN MEDICAID SPENDING.
IS IT POSSIBLE IT WILL NOT BE AS
00:14:25BAD AS WHAT IS IN THIS REPORT?
>> MAY BE.
00:14:28OR IT COULD BE WORSE.
THE THING TO REMEMBER ABOUT
00:14:35THESE PROJECTIONS IS THEY ARE
PROJECTIONS, THEY ARE BASED ON A
00:14:37SET OF ASSUMPTIONS, PARTICULARLY
REGARDING MIGRATION INTO AND OUT
00:14:43OF OHIO THAT MAY BE BETTER OR
MAYBE WORSE.
00:14:49WE REALLY DON'T KNOW.
>> AND OBVIOUSLY THERE COULD BE
00:14:58CHANGES BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.
FOR EXAMPLE, IF INDEED THE
00:15:02INCOME TAX IS COMPLETELY
ELIMINATED AND THERE IS MORE
00:15:05RELIANCE ON SALES TAX.
PEOPLE DO TEND TO SPEND LESS, DO
00:15:08THEY NOT?
>> THEY DO.
00:15:11THERE ARE TWO THINGS GOING ON.
THE FACT THAT OLDER HOUSEHOLDS
00:15:15SPEND LESS THAN YOUNGER
HOUSEHOLDS, ABOUT 40% LESS FOR
00:15:22THE OLDEST HOUSEHOLDS, ON
AVERAGE.
00:15:24AND THE FACT A SMALLER SHARE OF
THE MONEY THEY DO SPEND IS SPENT
00:15:31ON GOODS THAT ARE TAXABLE, GOODS
AND SERVICES.
00:15:35TYPICAL HOUSEHOLD IN THE YOUNGER
AGE GROUPS SPENDS ABOUT A THIRD
00:15:42OF THEIR INCOME ON TAXABLE
EXPENDITURES.
00:15:43480 AND OLDER, IT IS ABOUT A
QUARTER OR LESS.
00:15:50>> ON THE HEALTH CARE SITE, YOU
WRITE THAT RISING PRICES ARE A
00:15:57MORE IMPORTANT DRIVER THAN
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE.
00:15:58SO THAT IMPLIES THAT SIDE OF IT,
AS WE ARE FOCUSING ON THE TAX
00:16:05SIDE, MEDICAID, IS A REALLY BIG
DEAL.
00:16:06>> WE LOOKED AT SEVERAL HEALTH
CARE PROGRAMS, INCLUDING SOME
00:16:13COST-SHARING SHARING THE STATE
DOES WITH THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT
00:16:15FOR MEDICARE PART D PRICES AND
REALLY THE DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE IS
00:16:20IMPORTANT.
WHEN YOU LOOK AT WHAT THE
00:16:22MEDICARE TRUSTEES ARE SAYING,
THE DRUG PRICES MAY GO UP BY 5%
00:16:29A YEAR.
PER PERSON.
00:16:30THAT IS A HUGE A DRIVER, IF WE
DON'T DO ANYTHING.
00:16:36EVEN IF WE DID NOT HAVE THIS
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE COMING.
00:16:39IF WE DID NOT DO ANYTHING THAT
WOULD BREAK THE BANK.
00:16:42PEOPLE HAVE BEEN FOCUSING ON
HEALTH CARE COSTS ACROSS THE
00:16:45BOARD.
JOHN KASICH HAS FOCUSED ON
00:16:52PRICES IN THE MEDICAID PROGRAM
AND NOW THEY ARE LOOKING AT
00:16:54BRINGING IN PRIVATE INSURANCE
COMPANIES, PROVIDERS IN TWO WAYS
00:16:59TO BRING DOWN HEALTH CARE COSTS.
THAT IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT TO
00:17:03GET AHEAD OF THAT CURVE RIGHT
NOW.
00:17:04>> BILL, GO AHEAD.
>> YOU HAVE TO REALIZE TOO, TO
00:17:11THE EXTENT HEALTH CARE COSTS
EXCEED INFLATION, THAT IS GOING
00:17:19TO CROWD OUT OTHER SPENDING.
INCLUDING TAXABLE SPENDING.
00:17:22PEOPLE WILL BE SPENDING A LARGER
SHARE OF THEIR INCOME, THEIR
00:17:26DISPOSABLE INCOME, ON THESE
HEALTH-CARE RELATED COST.
00:17:30I LOOK AT 60 YEARS' WORTH OF
INFLATION IN HEALTH CARE, AND
00:17:41THE ONLY DECADE THAT HEALTH CARE
EXPENSES WERE NOT GROWING FASTER
00:17:48THAN INFLATION WAS THE 1950'S.
AND SO THERE ARE GUESSES, I WILL
00:17:55SAY, THAT HEALTH CARE INFLATION
IS GOING TO SLOW DOWN.
00:18:02WE HONESTLY DON'T WANT TO BET
THE BANK ON THAT.
00:18:06>> WHEN YOU TALK ABOUT THAT, YOU
HAVE THIS ISSUE OF TOUCHE NO
00:18:11CARE, NURSING HOMES, AND HOME
AND COMMUNITY-BASED CARE.
00:18:15IN THE STATE HAS BEEN FOCUSING
ON THE SECOND OF THOSE.
00:18:21IT DOES CREATE THIS RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES.
00:18:25IT COULD BE VERY EXPENSIVE THAN
IT COULD BE LESS EXPENSIVE.
00:18:26>> KAREN, THERE HAVE BEEN
DISCUSSIONS ABOUT LONG-TERM
00:18:34CARE, NURSING HOMES, OR IN THE
COMMUNITY, FOR MANY YEARS AT THE
00:18:37NATIONAL LEVEL AND AT THE STATE
LEVEL.
00:18:38WE RAN TWO DIFFERENT SCENARIOS.
ONE WAS A LOW USE SCENARIO WHERE
00:18:46THINGS WERE KEPT THE SAME IN
TERMS OF THE PROPORTION OF THE
00:18:51OLDER POPULATION USING THE
SERVICES.
00:18:52AND THE COSTS DO GO UP, BUT AT
A SLOWER PACE.
00:18:59AT HIGH UTILIZATION, 26,000
PEOPLE STATEWIDE WOULD USE THAT
00:19:04KIND OF SERVICE, IT MEANT A
DIFFERENCE OF HUNDREDS OF
00:19:09MILLIONS OF DOLLARS.
>> $400 MILLION.
00:19:13THESE ARE BIG NUMBERS.
>> THAT WOULD TAKE A HUGE CHUNK
00:19:18OUT OF THE STATE BUDGET.
SO THAT LEAVES TO DISCUSSIONS
00:19:24OF, YES, CARING FOR MORE PEOPLE
IN THE COMMUNITY, BUT ALSO
00:19:27INVESTING IN PREVENTION AND
TRYING TO KEEP PEOPLE, IF THEY
00:19:31ARE HEALTHIER AT YOUNGER AGES,
THEY TEND TO BE HEALTHIER AT
00:19:33OLDER AGES AS WELL AS.
SO AGAIN IF YOU CAN KEEP THEM
00:19:38OUT OF THE NURSING HOME AND KEEP
THEM IN THE COMMUNITY, TALK
00:19:39ABOUT HOME MODIFICATION, PUTTING
THE RAMP IN.
00:19:46WIDENING THE HALLWAY SO THE
WHEELCHAIR CAN GET DOWN.
00:19:48VARIOUS CHANGES THAT WILL HELP
LOWER COSTS.
00:19:53>> YOU MENTIONED CROWDING OUT.
RETIREMENT AND RETIREMENT AGE IS
00:20:03DIFFERENT.
PEOPLE IN THAT GROUP ARE
00:20:04DIFFERENT NOW.
THERE ARE MORE PEOPLE FOR
00:20:07MINORITY GROUPS IN THAT.
THEY ARE MORE EDUCATED.
00:20:08THEY ARE HEALTHIER.
SOME OF THEM ARE WORKING.
00:20:13SOME OF THEM WORK PAST 65,
WHETHER THEY WANT TO OR NOT.
00:20:17THEY ARE TRYING DIFFERENT
CAREERS.
00:20:18SO RETIREMENT LOOKS DIFFERENT
THAN IT USED TO.
00:20:23FOR A LOT OF THESE FOLKS, THERE
IS THE ISSUE OF FIXED INCOME.
00:20:25THAT DOES HAVE A LOT OF IMPACT
ON UTILITY RATES, SCHOOL LEVIES,
00:20:30BOND ISSUES.
COUNTY BUDGETS, ALL OF THESE
00:20:33THINGS.
>> MOST CERTAINLY.
00:20:36AND FOR A GREATER PERCENTAGE OF
PEOPLE BEING ON A FIXED INCOME,
00:20:44IT IS GOING TO BE A HIGHER
HURDLE TO CLIMB TO PASS SOME OF
00:20:47THESE SCHOOL LEVIES AND THE KIND
OF TAX CHANGES ARE NECESSARY TO
00:20:55REALLY FINANCE THESE SERVICES.
>> THE GOOD NEWS I AM SEEING IS
00:21:00THAT THERE ARE MORE
MILLENNIALS.
00:21:01THERE IS THIS GENERATION X, A
LOT OF MILLENNIALS COMING UP.
00:21:09ARE THERE ENOUGH THAT WILL TAKE
CARE OF THIS PROBLEM?
00:21:10>> ONE OF THE LESSONS HERE IS
THAT WE NEED TO PAY CLOSE
00:21:16ATTENTION TO HUMAN CAPITAL.
EDUCATION OF THE POPULATION.
00:21:22IF YOU ARE GOING TO HAVE A
SHRINKING LABOR FORCE, WE CAN'T
00:21:24AFFORD TO HAVE HUNDREDS OF
THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE IN THE STATE
00:21:28WHO ARE ILLITERATE, OR CAN'T DO
BASIC MATH.
00:21:35WE HAVE ACCEPTED THAT FOR TOO
LONG AS A SOCIETY AND YES, WE
00:21:38HAVE PROGRAMS TO DEAL WITH THAT,
BUT WE NEED TO TALK MORE ABOUT
00:21:42GETTING WOMEN IN MINORITIES INTO
SCIENCE.
00:21:46WE TALK A GOOD GAME.
WE DON'T ALWAYS DO A GREAT JOB
00:21:49OF DOING THAT.
IN MAKING THOSE INVESTMENTS IN
00:21:54HUMAN CAPITAL, MAKING SURE THAT
EVERY KID ENTERS KINDERGARTEN
00:21:58READY TO LEARN.
SOME KIDS ARE ALREADY BEHIND
00:22:00WHEN THEY ENTER CAN GARTEN.
-- KINDERGARTEN.
00:22:05TALKING ABOUT LIFELONG LEARNING,
TAKING THE FACTORY WORKER WHO
00:22:08HAS BEEN LAID OFF AND MAKING IT
EASIER FOR HIM OR HER TO FIND A
00:22:13NEW CAREER.
THOSE ARE ALL ADJUSTMENT
00:22:19POLICIES THAT SHOULD BE AT THE
TOP OF THE LIST AS WE ARE
00:22:21LOOKING AT DEALING WITH
SITUATIONS LIKE THIS.
00:22:23>> I WANT TO GIVE A SHOUT OUT TO
TECHNICAL EDUCATION, WHICH IS
00:22:28VERY IMPORTANT.
OHIO IS A MANUFACTURING STATE.
00:22:33IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
MANUFACTURING STATE.
00:22:35AND EMPLOYERS ACROSS THE STATE I
TALKED TO ARE JUST SCREAMING OUT
00:22:42BECAUSE THEY ARE NOT GETTING THE
FLOW OF FOLKS WITH TECHNICAL
00:22:47SKILLS THEY NEED TO RUN THEIR
FACTORIES.
00:22:55SO WE REALLY NEED TO THINK ABOUT
TECHNICAL EDUCATION AS NOW
00:22:59JUMPED TO GOING TO COLLEGE.
-- AN ADJUNCT TO GOING TO
00:23:05COLLEGE.
IT DOES NOT NEED TO BE
00:23:06CONSIDERED A FAILURE OF SOMEBODY
TO GO INTO A TECHNICAL PROGRAM
00:23:12AS OPPOSED TO A COLLEGE PROGRAM.
>> I WANT TO ASK YOU, JON, WHAT
00:23:17CAN THE STATE BE DOING?
THIS IS NOT SOMETHING WE ARE
00:23:20HEARING A LOT ABOUT.
YOU MIGHT SAY THAT IS RELATED TO
00:23:26A LOT OF BABY BOOMERS DO NOT
WANT TO TALK ABOUT GETTING
00:23:28OLDER.
NOBODY WANTS TO TALK ABOUT THAT.
00:23:30WHAT CAN THE STATE DO NOW TO TRY
TO DEAL WITH SOME OF THESE
00:23:35ISSUES, ESPECIALLY THE POTENTIAL
DEFICIT YOU FORECAST?
00:23:37>> ONE ISSUE IS MAKING SURE
PEOPLE ARE HEALTHIER SO THAT
00:23:45WHEN THEY REACH AGE 70, THEY
DON'T NECESSARILY NEED LONG-TERM
00:23:47CARE.
AND CONTINUING WITH EFFORTS TO
00:23:54HELP PEOPLE STAY IN THE
COMMUNITY AND IN THEIR HOMES.
00:23:56ON THE TAX SIDE, WE NEED TO HAVE
AN HONEST DISCUSSION IF WE
00:23:59ELIMINATE THE INCOME TAX, WHICH
IS TO BE THE TREND AROUND HERE,
00:24:07ARE WE REALLY GOING TO DOUBLE
THE SALES TAX?
00:24:08WHAT DO WE NEED TO DO WITH THE
SALES TAX BASE IF WE HAVE
00:24:14MEDICAL INFLATION, CROWDING OUT
ALL OF THE TAXABLE GOODS?
00:24:17WHAT IS THAT GOING TO MEAN FOR
THE SALES TAX BASE?
00:24:21AND WE HAVE TO DISCUSS LOCAL
GOVERNMENT AND THEIR TAX BASE IS
00:24:28MUCH NARROWER THAN THAT OF THE
STATE.
00:24:29I THINK THAT CRUNCH ON THEM
COULD EVEN BE WORSE.
00:24:34>> WE HAVE HEARD ABOUT IN THE
TAX IS AWAY FROM TO KEEP PEOPLE
00:24:45FROM MOVING TO FLORIDA.
IT IS INTERESTING THERE IS THIS
00:24:48OTHER SIDE OF IT.
IF WE DO THAT, AND KEEP THESE
00:24:52PEOPLE IN OHIO, THERE IS ANOTHER
POSSIBLE CONCERN.
00:24:53>> WHEN PEOPLE HAVE REALLY
LOOKED AT THE MIGRATION DATA,
00:24:59OHIOANS ARE GOING TO SOUTHERN
STATES WHICH HAVE INCOME TAX.
00:25:05THE CAROLINAS, GEORGIA, AND SO
IT SEEMS TO ME THEY ARE MOVING
00:25:13FOR A REASON OTHER THAN INCOME
TAX MOST OF THE TIME.
00:25:16IT IS RELATED TO THE WEATHER.
WE ALL KNOW THAT AS WE HEAD INTO
00:25:20THE COLDER SEASON.
>> ALL RIGHT, THANK YOU FOR
00:25:24BEING HERE.
I APPRECIATE IT.
00:25:25NEXT WEEK, MORE ON THIS TOPIC,
FEATURING A DIFFERENT VIEW OF
00:25:27OLDER OHIOANS AND THE ECONOMY
FROM THE AARP.
00:25:30AND THAT'S IT FOR THIS WEEK.
FOR MY COLLEAGUES AT OHIO PUBLIC
00:25:32RADIO AND TELEVISION, THANKS FOR
WATCHING.
00:25:34IF YOU'D LIKE TO ASK QUESTIONS,
MAKE COMMENTS, OR WATCH THIS
00:25:36WEEK'S SHOW OR EARLIER EPISODES,
PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
00:25:39STATENEWS.ORG, OR WATCH ON THE
OHIO CHANNEL'S WEBSITE OR AT
00:25:43IDEASTREAM.ORG/OHIO.
AND YOU CAN FOLLOW JO INGLES,
00:25:47ANDY CHOW AND ME ON TWITTER.
AND PLEASE JOIN US AGAIN NEXT
00:25:50TIME FOR "THE STATE OF OHIO".
>> SUPPORT FOR THE STATEWIDE
00:26:22BROADCAST OF THE STATE OF OHIO
COMES FROM THE LAW OFFICES OF
00:26:24PORTER, WRIGHT, MORRIS AND
ARTHUR, LLP.
00:26:25HELPING BUSINESS AND INDIVIDUAL
SOLVE COMPLEX LEGAL PROBLEMS IN
00:26:30OHIO, ACROSS THE COUNTRY AND
AROUND THE WORLD.
00:26:33ONLINE AT PORTERWRIGHT.COM.
AND FROM THE OHIO EDUCATION
00:26:35ASSOCIATION, REPRESENTING
121,000 TEACHERS, SUPPORT
00:26:37PROFESSIONAL AND HIGHER
EDUCATION FACULTY COMMITTED TO
00:26:39THE SUCCESS OF EVERY CHILD.
Note : Transcripts are compiled from uncorrected captions